Projecting Where Virginia Will Land in the First Round of The CFP Rankings

Where are the Cavaliers likely to fall in the first CFP rankings tonight?

Nov 1, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) intercepts a pass intended or California Golden Bears tight end Mason Mini (85) during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

With the Virginia Cavaliers now riding a record that was previously deemed nearly impossible for Tony Elliott's program, the Cavaliers have made quite an impressive name for themselves. Their overall record of 8-1 and 5-0 in ACC play will speak for itself, but the most inspiring part of this season is that they weren't expected to be anywhere near this successful. Doubts flooded fans, and criticism was sent toward Elliott, but despite the skeptics, UVA has been pulling through.

Where Will UVA Land in First CFP Rankings?

Nov 1, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) runs back a California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass for a touchdown during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Elliott has made it clear throughout the season that he wants his players to focus on each matchup and drown out the external noise. Part of that noise involves the rankings that take place each week, but with the end of the season drawing near, those rankings are becoming more telling. However, the most important has yet to come — the College Football Playoff rankings. Tonight, the first round of rankings will be released at 8 p.m. EST. Where is UVA likely to fall?

It's safe to say that Virginia will likely land in the 13-16 range for the first CFP rankings tonight, but potentially closer to No. 13. Although they have only faced one loss, which was back in September against NC State (35-31), it, of course, hurt the program and prevented them from a clean record.

Their most prolific wins came over Florida State (46-38) and Louisville (30-27), neither of which the Cavaliers were predicted to win. Having these two major upsets under their belt will inevitably boost them up in the rankings. The potential of UVA's spot in the rankings is exciting, but Elliott has been hammering down the importance of focusing on one week at a time:

"... just keep the main thing the main thing, and at the end of the day, all that stuff down the road doesn't matter if you don't take care of the business in front of you. And I think the team has really adopted that mindset and mentality that they know we got to do it one step at a time and focus on what we can control. I'm constantly reminding the guys to simplify their lives and cut off social media and it's only going to get hard this week because, you know, this is the week where they start doing all the rankings and all that kind of stuff, and hopefully, you know, I can get ahead of it and and tell the guys that none of that stuff matters, and really from the beginning I told them that preseason rankings don't matter, midseason rankings don't matter. The only ranking that matters is where you're at at the end of the season, and if we don't take care of business week to week, then we're not going to be in that conversation."

Well, the end of the season is approaching quickly. Now is the time rankings truly start to matter, but UVA can’t lose focus on their upcoming matchups against Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech.