What Does ESPN's FPI Think About Virginia's Chances to Upset Florida State?

How does ESPN analytics think the Week Five matchup will play out in Charlottesville on Friday?

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Harrison Waylee (21) carries the ball as Stanford Cardinal linebacker Zach Johnson (38) attempts a tackle during the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia is up to their toughest challenge this season, by far. This No. 8 Florida State team is one of the hottest squads in the ACC, if not the entire college football landscape. Dual-threat quarterback Tommy Castellanos has already accounted for six total touchdowns after coming to FSU from Boston College. Four options on the Seminoles' offense have scored at least three touchdowns through four weeks.

Virginia head coach Tony Elliott praised Castellanos earlier this week.

"He's playing with a lot of confidence — he looks very decisive... He's really grasped the offense..he just looks like he's playing a video game to be honest with you. He's making people miss."

But this Virginia offense has proven to be extremely explosive and just one call away from a game-changing play. Let's see how ESPN's FPI thinks this Week Five matchup will go.

Not A Huge Margin

𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 5️⃣

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— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) September 23, 2025

ESPN analytics give the Hoo's about a 40% chance to walk out of Week Five with a win. The odds have stayed pretty consistent, if not inched a bit in UVA's favor, the past few weeks.

The Week One win against Alabama really shot FSU up the leaderboards but inferior competition in the following weeks was expected. A 77-3 win over East Texas A&M, followed by a 55-point victory against Kent State, did not move the needle very much.

Virginia's dominant win against a conference opponent in Stanford this past week also helped pushthe odds ever so slightly towards the Cavaliers. While the Hoo's rushing offense had been making national headlines in previous weeks, the pass game really caught up last week.

Quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver Trell Harris showed out, introducing the Virginia pass game as a legitimate threat. The performance allows the offense to not be so one-dimensional, making it harder for defenses to stop as they continue to face ACC-level defenses coming up.

Elliott says this offense continues to gel together as they see more time on the field together.

"Truthfully, still kind of figuring them out, right? Each week has been a little bit different, and so each week you learn a little bit more about each of the guy's that you have. We felt like we had a lot of really good ingredients and had to bring it all together."

What To Look For

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) runs the ball during the first half against the East Texas A&M Lions at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

This game could be a shootout. Fanduel Sportsbook has the over/under for total points scored at 59.5. The key to winning this ACC matchup will be which defense steps up more.

This Florida State defense is a premiere unit in the ACC, allowing a conference-lowest 10 points per game. They also rank third in yards allowed per game in the ACC (248). Their rush defense is even tighter, allowing just over 78 yards per game - second in the conference.

Virginia's defense is not terrible by any means but a little closer to the middle of the pack. They have also not faced a quarterback nearly as dangerous as Castellanos. His dynamic abilities will most likely prove the toughest test for the Hoo's defense so far in 2025.

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