Staff predictions — how will Virginia fare against NC State?

Writers submitted their forecasts for the game

Sep 22, 2023; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Mike Hollins (7) is tackled by North Carolina State Wolfpack safety Sean Brown (0) during the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The eve of gameday has arrived after an offseason odyssey. At 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Virginia and NC State will battle for first place in the ACC. It is a high-stakes conference duel that will set the tone for the 2026 campaign. 

Below, the Virginia On SI staff submitted their picks and forecast for the game. 

Jackson Caudell: Virginia 24, NC State 21

Cavaliers control the tempo of the game on the ground, fifth-year quarterback Beau Pribula leads the way with two rushing TDs and UVA’s defense slows down junior quarterback CJ Bailey enough to get the big win to start the season.

Xander Tilock: Virginia 27, NC State 24

I’d like to play it safe and see how these 2026 Cavaliers perform. I think Virginia wins — size and experience are paramount — but there are questions about fourth-year linebacker Kam Robinson, second-year SPUR Corey Costner and the receiving room in terms of health. 

For NC State, Bailey will keep things close and seriously test this Cavaliers defense. However, the Wolfpack supporting cast pales in comparison to an extremely deep Virginia team. Football is won not by the best players dominating, but by the "worst" players getting picked on all afternoon. The Cavaliers do not seem to have any clear weak spots.

Steve DeShazo: Virginia 31, NC State 24

A good offense is often the best defense, and it's in Virginia's best interest to control the line of scrimmage and the clock against a potent Wolfpack team and keep Bailey off the field.

Even if Rico Flores Jr. were playing, the Cavaliers would be best served running behind college football's most experienced offensive line. With Flores out, it makes even more sense to give Jekail Middlebrook, Xay Davis, Peyton Lewis and Xavier Brown plenty of carries against an NC State defense that wasn't all that good against the run a year ago and has several new starters.

Every minute Virginia's offense is on the field is a minute Bailey is off it. As the Cavaliers learned last year, he's a big (6-foot-6) threat with his strong arm and his quick feet. His offensive line isn't nearly as accomplished as Virginia's, which gives the Cavaliers a chance to pressure him — even if Robinson isn't at full speed (or on the field at all).

A sellout crowd should help Virginia's cause. But season openers are unpredictable, and Beau Pribula must take care of the ball to make sure Bailey doesn't spoil the Cavaliers' big plans.