BPI Reveals West Virginia's Chances to Upset No. 7 Houston

Can West Virginia be the story of the day in college basketball? The analytics aren't very promising.

Jan 10, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Chance Moore (13) celebrates with teammates after a play during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

There aren't many in the college basketball world who expect Ross Hodge's West Virginia Mountaineers to go into Houston tonight and pull an upset of the No. 7 Cougars. Even the analytics are giving them a mighty slim chance.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has just a 12% chance to pull off the upset and move to 3-1 in Big 12 Conference play, while Houston has an 88% chance to move to 16-1 on the year.

The two programs have only met three times, and in all three games, the Cougars won handily, winning by an average of 21.3 points per game. Last year in the second meeting, the Mountaineers dug themselves a huge hole in the first half, trailing 39-19 at the break, and really, that's been the theme of this series. In the first matchup, they trailed 40-27 at halftime, and two years ago, they were down 48-22. Avoiding that massive margin in the first twenty minutes will be key.

West Virginia's recent games

The Big 12 home opener wasn't pretty, but the Mountaineers were able to hold on to get the victory over Cincinnati. On Saturday, they made a statement with an 11-point win over projected No. 1 overall pick Darryn Peterson and the then 22nd-ranked Kansas Jayhawks. A huge 22-2 run by the Mountaineers in the second half flipped an eight-point deficit into a double-digit lead in a hurry. A big part of that run was smothering Kansas out of the paint after allowing the Jayhawks easy look after easy look in the first half.

Houston's recent games

The Cougars are 3-0 in conference play, but have had a couple of close calls. They erased a four-point halftime deficit against Cincinnati to win by seven and then came out on top in a wire-to-wire, intense game against Texas Tech. Turnovers and free throws were the difference in that one. Texas Tech turned it over 14 times, compared to Houston's six, and had just 11 free throw attempts to the Cougars' 22.

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