Season Sweep Over Cincinnati? Matchup Predictor Doesn't Love West Virginia's Chances

WVU is expected to drop its second straight game, according to the analytics.

Jan 6, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Treysen Eaglestaff (52) and Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) fight for a loose ball during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

For the first time this season, West Virginia will have its first repeat opponent, looking for a two-game sweep of the Cincinnati Bearcats. Can they get the job done?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has been given just a 42.1% chance to win, while Cincinnati has a 57.9% chance to move a game above .500 on the season.

Tossing the records out the window, the percentages actually make sense. The Mountaineers have not played well away from Hope Coliseum whatsoever, winning just once. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been a tough customer at home, which includes a comfortable win over No. 2 Iowa State.

West Virginia's recent games

Slow start after slow start after slow start. It's become a troubling theme for the Mountaineers of late, and until Honor Huff gets back into rhythm or a change is made to the starting lineup, I fear WVU fans will see this trend continue, particularly on the road.

After going 1-1 as expected in the Arizona State/Arizona road trip, West Virginia returned home for a pair of games last week against Kansas State and Baylor, two very favorable matchups. The offense was out of whack seemingly for all forty minutes of both games, resulting in a split of the two.

Cincinnati's recent games

Since picking up that random, unexpected win over Iowa State, the Bearcats have lost three of four. In their defense, two of those three losses came against No. 1 Arizona and No. 10 Houston, two of the best teams in the Big 12.

Their last home game ended in a 10-point win over the very Baylor Bears that West Virginia just saw. In that game, Cincinnati held Baylor, who shot 41% from deep against WVU, to a 6/26 performance from three (23%). The Bearcats did a good job on WVU defensively in that first matchup, but did allow the Mountaineers to connect on 11 of their 23 threes.

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