What Does ESPN's Matchup Predictor Say About West Virginia vs. Kansas?

A look at what the analytics say heading into today's game versus the Jayhawks.

Jan 6, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward DJ Thomas (5) shoots over Cincinnati Bearcats forward Tyler McKinley (24) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

This afternoon, someone is going to feel pretty good in Morgantown after winning their second game in Big 12 play, while the loser will start to have some doubt creep in, moving to 1-2.

Will it be West Virginia or Kansas that leaves Hope Coliseum in a good mood?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia is given just a 44.9% chance to win this game, while Kansas has a 55.1% chance. Although I expect the Jayhawks to win, I am surprised that the computers are favoring Kansas, given how much they put on homecourt advantage. The Mountaineers have had a ton of success against the Jayhawks in Morgantown over the years, too, for what it's worth.

West Virginia's recent games

After getting pounded in the Big 12 opener against No. 3 Iowa State on the road, the Mountaineers bounced back with a narrow win over Cincinnati at home. They came out of the gates strong, looking as if they would beat the Bearcats comfortably, but a barrage of turnovers allowed Cincinnati to stay within reach and eventually take the lead late in the second half.

Treysen Eaglestaff drilled a low-percentage three-pointer in front of Ross Hodge just as the shot clock was set to expire, giving WVU the lead. A couple of defensive stops and successful trips to the free-throw line sealed the deal. Well, they did almost blow it when Jasper Floyd turned the ball over on the inbound pass with less than two seconds left. He should have just chucked it the full length of the court.

Kansas' recent games

In their Big 12 opener in Orlando, UCF had its way in the paint offensively, scoring 38 of its 81 points. They also did an extremely good job of taking care of the basketball, turning it over only six times, compared to Kansas' twelve.

Against TCU, it was a game where neither team could get a stop. Some of that was due to Kansas' shot-making, and the other half was the constant whistle the Jayhawks were getting offensively. I know, shocker, right? They had 40 free throw attempts, nailing thirty of them, helping erase a 16-point deficit and winning in overtime 104-100.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

How to watch West Virginia vs. Kansas: Tip-off time, TV channel, and odds

Score Predictions for West Virginia vs. No. 22 Kansas

West Virginia QB Scotty Fox Jr. to Remain with Program, Battle for Starting Job

Rodriguez Announces Chance Trickett as West Virginia’s Director of Player Evaluation

Mountaineers Add Valuable Edge Rusher Depth With WKU Transfer