ESPN FPI Flips on Backyard Brawl as WVU’s Chances Drop Sharply After Ohio Loss

Will West Virginia slip to 1-2 heading into Big 12 Conference play?

Aug 30, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Rodney Gallagher III (24) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Robert Morris Colonials at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

It's Backyard Brawl week, and here in just a few days, the Mountaineers and Panthers will face off for the final time until 2029. West Virginia is coming off a very disappointing loss to Ohio, but with Pitt now the focus, they should be able to have a goldfish memory, putting last week's game behind them pretty quickly.

What the ESPN FPI says

Sep 6, 2025; Athens, Ohio, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Nicco Marchiol (8) warms up prior to their game against the Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Power Football Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have just a 40.6% chance to win, while Pitt has a 59.4% chance to leave Morgantown happy with a 3-0 record.

West Virginia's offense lacked a lot of things last Saturday in their loss to Athens, and now, they lack explosiveness, having lost running back Jahiem White and wide receiver Jaden Bray for the season. The offensive line is a major concern, and if things don't get fixed quickly, this season could spiral out of control in a hurry.

As for Pitt, it's been easy breezy through the first two weeks of the season, picking up wins over Duquesne and Central Michigan. The Chippewas gave them a scare for just a moment in the second half, cutting it to 24-17, but a big kick return and a deep ball touchdown pass from Eli Holstein pushed it back out to a two-score lead and the Chipps were unable to draw any closer.

Change in analytics since initially released

Sep 6, 2025; Athens, Ohio, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers running back Jahiem White (1) is seen being carted off the field after an injury during the second quarter against the Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Back in August, the FPI gave the Mountaineers a 56% chance of winning the Backyard Brawl. Dropping nearly sixteen full percentage points was a direct result of what happened in Athens last Saturday. I'm not sure if the model is being fed the information that two key players were seriously hurt in that game, but WVU's chances haven't dropped since the news of White/Bray's injuries came out on Monday. The Bobcats were expected to give West Virginia a close game, but winning it came as a major surprise.

The Mountaineers and Panthers will kick things off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. You'll be able to watch the game live on ESPN.

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