SP+ Model Predicts Final Score Between WVU and TCU

Last week, the West Virginia Mountaineers snapped a three-game slide with a thrilling 45-42 victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats. Can they pick up win No. 5 of the year before the bye week?

Bill Connelly's SP+ model's prediction says...

The model is projecting TCU to win this game by a 34-21 score, meaning it expects TCU's defense to do what it has done all year and for the Frogs to do something offensively that it hasn't done all year — move the ball efficiently and put it in the end zone. This isn't too far off my score prediction, which I posted on Thursday.

The style of game will dictate the outcome

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez talks to an official during the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Which elite unit has some issues? Which struggling unit has some success? That's going to be what we are watching for in this rare game where a potent offense takes on one of the top defenses in the country, and a TCU offense that is stuck in the mud matches up with one of the nation's worst defenses.

If this gets into a back-and-forth affair, it's the kind of game that West Virginia is used to at this point, so although they'd love to get more stops defensively, they would be more comfortable in that setting than if their offense gets stymied and has to overcome a two- or three-score deficit.

In Big 12 play alone, the Horned Frogs are averaging a measly 13.3 points per game. If you extend that to all of their games against Power Four teams, it drops to 12.5 points per game. Their biggest issue has been running the football. They can't get any momentum going on the ground, and because of it, teams are teeing off on QB Jaden Craig in the passing game. The offensive line has not held up in pass protection, which has really limited what Craig can do, even though he is still connecting on 66% of his passes.

The Mountaineers and Horned Frogs are slated to tee the ball up at 12 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on ESPN2.

Following the game, be sure to stop by our YouTube page (West Virginia On SI) for the Mountaineer Postgame Show with former WVU running back Eugene Napoleon and me. We'll recap the action and take a peek at the road ahead for the Mountaineers.

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