West Virginia Odds Plunge as ESPN FPI Projects Uphill Battle vs. Elite Texas Tech Team

The Mountaineers are given a small chance to shock the world on Saturday.

West Virginia University linebacker Reid Carrico | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

Saturday afternoon, the Mountaineers will put a bow on year one of Rich Rodriguez's return and will look to do so in epic fashion. Fifth-ranked Texas Tech comes in looking like a true national championship contender and enters as a massive favorite, as you would expect.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Texas Tech

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have just an 8.5% chance to stun the world on Saturday, while Texas Tech has a 91.5% to take care of business on the road and get into the Big 12 title game.

With all due respect to West Virginia, even eight percent seems a bit generous. This Texas Tech team doesn't really have a weakness. They are stout on the defensive side of the ball, they get after you with four-man pressures, force turnovers, and tackle better than any team in the country.

Offensively, it's a balanced, high-powered attack led by veteran quarterback Behren Morton, who has a trio of reliable playmakers at receiver. Running back Cameron Dickey is also a threat to score from anywhere on the field, entering the weekend with 13 rushing scores.

There is a reason why you play the game, though, and let's be honest here for a second... we all know stranger things have happened at Mountaineer Field in the final week of the season.

Change in analytics since initially released

This might be one of the biggest drops in odds of any Mountaineer game this season. Back in August, the FPI gave West Virginia a 44% chance to beat the Red Raiders. I thought that was way too high at the time, but it even looks worse now, seeing how the season has unfolded for both of these teams.

Much was made about all the money Texas Tech spent in the transfer portal, and maybe there was a little concern with how that would all come together, but I think it's safe to say they had a pretty high hit rate with that portal class. Also, the FPI couldn't forecast all of the injuries that WVU has endured this season either.

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