What Are Realistic Expectations for WVU Football in 2025?

It's been a little over two months already, and yet still, it doesn't seem real that Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown as the head coach of the West Virginia Mountaineers. Because of how ugly the breakup was 17 years ago, it'll probably take quite some time for that, "Holy crap, this is real?" feeling to go away.

Nevertheless, Rich Rod will be strolling the sidelines at Mountaineer Field for the first time since that dreadful night in 2007 in just six months when WVU takes on Robert Morris in the season opener.

Expectations are all over the place for year one of Rodriguez's second stint in Morgantown, ranging from just making a bowl game to being the 2025 version of Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers, who made the College Football Playoff in their first year together.

How are we measuring success?

Rich Rodriguez — WVU Athletics Communication

Before we get into actually talking about expectations, we need to define how year one should be judged. Are we going by the easy metric of wins and losses? Or should it be based on the eye test?

Personally, I'm voting for the latter, but it's a mixture of the two.

Athletic Director Wren Baker has mentioned several times in the past that you can't always make decisions or evaluate a season solely based on a record, and I wholeheartedly agree. You can go 8-4 and not feel good if you lost the last four games of the year, dropping three of them in blowout fashion, and then go on to lose the bowl game as well. Just like you can feel pretty good about going 7-5 with a strong finish to the season and a bowl win.

Sometimes, the record just doesn't tell the whole story.

Setting the bar

West Virginia University head coach Rich Rodriguez | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

So, what exactly should the expectations be in 2025? At the very minimum, we're talking about winning games at home and competing in all 12.

Last year, WVU went 2-4 at home against FBS opponents, losing by an average of 18.5 points per game. Yes, three of those losses were to ranked teams, but still, you can't be losing games by three scores at home. Be competitive.

West Virginia's five home games against FBS foes this year are against Pitt, Utah, TCU, Colorado, and Texas Tech. Although the Red Raiders are expected to be a Big 12 contender, you could make the argument that all five are winnable games. Going 3-2 or better is a must. It's been several years since West Virginia had a true home field advantage, and in order to get this program back on track, that has to be the first order of business.

Asking Rodriguez to knock off multiple top-10 teams like Darian DeVries has in his first year is a pretty unfair ask. Heck, West Virginia may not even see a single top-10 team all year. But like DeVries, you want to see a breadcrumb trail of success against some of the better teams in the league.

Whether that's shockingly upsetting BYU on the road or ruining Texas Tech's goal of reaching the conference championship at the end of the season, winning games you aren't favored to win will create optimism for the future.

The bottom line

We're still several months out, and a lot can change between now and the start of the season for WVU and the other 15 teams in the league, from roster additions/subtractions to injuries. But predicting the Mountaineers to finish in the top four of five in the Big 12, at this point, is just crazy talk.

There are so many question marks about this team, and with so many new faces, there's no telling how they will gel or how many of the portal additions will turn out to be busts. Finishing that high (top four-five) in the league is surpassing everyone's expectations, even Wren Baker's. Aside from making the College Football Playoff, that would be a dream season for year one.

Realistically speaking, we're talking finishing in or close to the top half of the league, more so toward the middle of the pack - that sixth to ninth range.

How are we measuring success?

Setting the bar

The bottom line

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