National college basketball analyst sees Wisconsin Badgers as 'dark horse' Final Four team

The Wisconsin Badgers have come up short in recent NCAA Tournament runs, but this year could be different with the team loaded up on both ends of the court.

Mar 14, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

As Greg Gard said at Big Ten Media days last week, excitement is brewing around the Wisconsin men's basketball program.

The Badgers set program records in three-pointers attempted and made last season, and they had an All-American in John Tonje leading the charge.

Greg Gard:

"The buzz right now -- there's been an excitement in the air. They (fans) saw how we played last year. There's another evolution as we continue to push the bar offensively...It's an exciting group and an exciting time in Madison for basketball."#Badgers pic.twitter.com/bIxpC8dImz

— Evan Flood (@Evan_Flood) October 9, 2025

While Tonje has graduated and advanced to the NBA, Wisconsin's offensive framework remains.

Instead of Tonje, it'll be returners John Blackwell and Nolan Winter piloting the offense. Flanking the pair of juniors are three more plus-shooting, versatile transfers, making Wisconsin's 2025-26 attack potentially even more potent.

National college basketball analyst Andy Katz has noticed what Gard has built in Madison, and he sees the Badgers as capable of making a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

Andy Katz lists Badgers as Final Four Dark Horse

Katz compiled a list of 10 dark horse teams that could make the Final Four this year. Wisconsin came in at No. 7.

Don't sleep on them 😴@TheAndyKatz picks 🔟 dark horse teams that could make a run to the Final Four 🔥 pic.twitter.com/s6FfxphnlO

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) October 14, 2025

Wisconsin is one of six Big ten teams listed by Katz. The Badgers are ranked No. 24 in the preseason AP Poll.

Still, it shows a level of belief outside of Madison that hasn't been present in past years. Wisconsin had been ranked in the preseason poll just one time in the last eight years.

Related: Wisconsin Badgers basketball picked to finish outside Top 5 in Big Ten this season

The modernization of the Badgers offense has made Wisconsin capable of keeping up with high-powered opponents, as shown in their 91-89 Round of 32 loss to BYU in last year's tournament.

Oddly enough, since departing coach Kirk Penney helped implement the new offensive scheme, defense has been the Badgers' limiting factor.

Gard acknowledged the need for defensive growth during Big Ten Media Day. He said the analytical profile of a true Final Four contending team consisted of being a top 10 offense and defense on Kenpom.com.

Wisconsin finished last season 24th on that list, rising up the rankings late after a sluggish start.

Grabbing transfers from elite defensive programs in Nick Boyd (SDSU) and Andrew Rohde (Virginia) to complement its current allotment of plus-defenders, Wisconsin could have what it takes to approach, or even achieve Gard's 10-and-10 goal.

And if that's the case, Katz might just be right.

More Wisconsin Badgers News:

• How Wisconsin Badgers plan to keep offense humming without Kirk Penney on coaching staff

• Wisconsin Badgers basketball sees transfer wing as secret key to success this season

• Greg Gard plans to sign Wisconsin Badgers basketball recruits to long-term contracts

• Why Badgers basketball stars believe Wisconsin offense will be even more lethal this year