Purdue's offense efficiency and firepower will test Wisconsin's improving defense

Wisconsin resumes Big Ten play on FOX Sports Primetime when it hosts No.5 Purdue at the Kohl Center a visit to Madison to face the Badgers at the Kohl Center.

The Badgers have won the first two games of their four-game homestand by an average of 23.5 points but have yet to beat a top 50 team in the KenPom ratings. The Boilermakers have won four straight games and are looking for a 3-0 start in Big Ten play for the first time since the 2017-18 season.

Here is a look at both teams and a prediction for tonight's contest.

Purdue (12-1, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (9-4, 1-1 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Saturday, January 3, 7 p.m.
Arena – Kohl Center
TV – FOX (Jason Benett and Jim Jackson)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)
Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (222-121 in his 11th season). Matt Painter (483-216 in his 21st season, 508-221 in his 22nd overall season)
Series – Purdue leads 114-76; Wisconsin leads 52-39 in Madison.
Point Spread – Purdue -5.5

Wisconsin resumes Big Ten play tonight with its toughest test of the season, hosting No.5 Purdue. How to watch, stream, or listen, and things you may need to know #Badgers https://t.co/khdvpQ6JgM
— Benjamin Worgull (@TheBadgerNation) January 3, 2026

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 19.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.2 apg)
7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 7.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.6 apg)
25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 18.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
31 Nolan Winter (6-11 Junior Forward, 14.1 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.6 apg)
32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.9 apg)
Off the bench
0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 5.2 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.0 apg)
5 Jack Janicki (6-5 Sophomore Guard, 2.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.2 apg)
22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.9 apg)
23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Player to watch
Winter is shooting 60.0 from the field (42-70) and is averaging 14.3 points per game and 8.6 rebounds per home game.

🔙 to Big Ten play#Badgers 🆚 Purdue
⏰ 7 p.m.
📍 Kohl Center
📺 FOX
🔗 https://t.co/J8C5gsKSjC pic.twitter.com/FIW4EIrtn1
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) January 3, 2026

Purdue probable starters

0 C.J. Cox (6-3 Sophomore Guard, 7.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.1 apg)
2 Fletcher Loyer (6-5 Senior Guard, 14.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.6 apg)
3 Braden Smith (6-0 Senior Guard, 12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 9.5 apg)
4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9 Senior Forward, 14.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
45 Oscar Cluff (6-11 Senior Center, 11.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Off the bench
2 Daniel Jacobsen (7-4 Sophomore Center, 8.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 0.6 apg)
14 Omer Mayer (6-4 Freshman Guard, 6.1 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.9 apg)
24 Gicarri Harris (6-3 Sophomore Guard, 5.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Player to watch
Smith has had double-digit assists against Wisconsin in each of his last three games vs. the Badgers.

Ringing in the New Year in B1G play.

🆚: Wisconsin
⏰: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT
📍: Kohl Center
💻: FOX
📻: Purdue Global Radio Network
📊: https://t.co/j6wbN03my9 pic.twitter.com/L9XbswYua1
— Purdue Men's Basketball (@BoilerBall) January 3, 2026

Series notes

Saturday’s game will mark the 191st meeting between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Purdue Boilermakers in a series that began in 1906.

Since 2000, the series is tied 22-22, but the Badgers have won five of the past nine matchups.

Wisconsin is 14-7 against the Boilermakers at the Kohl Center.

UW looks for its first three-game winning streak against Purdue since winning four-straight games in 2014 and 2015.

This is the 10th time Wisconsin will face a top-10 Purdue team since 2018. The Badgers have won five of the last nine games when the Boilermakers are ranked in the top 10.

Wisconsin notes

Wisconsin has won 10+ Big Ten games in 21 of the last 24 seasons. No other team can make that claim.

In the last 11 years, Wisconsin has tallied 15 wins over AP top-10 teams, including six at the Kohl Center. Eight of UW's 15 top-10 wins are against top-5 teams. Five of Wisconsin's 15 top-10 wins have come against Purdue.

The Badgers are 8-0 at the Kohl Center this season. This marks the best Kohl Center start since the 2016-17 season when UW started 13-0, and the 11th-best start in building history.

The Badgers are averaging 10.5 three-point field goals per game, which ranks second in the Big Ten Conference and ranks 37th in the country.

Purdue notes

Purdue has held four straight foes to 60 or fewer points. Opponents are shooting just 34.7 percent from the field in that span.

Purdue is one-of-seven schools to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive (1st) and defensive (16th) efficiency, via KenPom (Purdue, Gonzaga, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Iowa State, Duke).

Purdue has been tied or trailed for just 3:14 in 160 combined minutes over the last four games and none in the last 38 minutes. Purdue held at least a double-digit lead in the last 24:43 vs. Auburn,
23:16 vs. Marquette, 17:55 vs. Minnesota and 28:44 vs. Kent State.

Purdue has nine players averaging between 5.4 and 14.0 points per game, tied for the most in the country among players that have played at least 10 games

Prediction

This does not look like a great matchup for Wisconsin, which has shown through the first 13 games that they've been inconsistent on defense, and they have struggled on teams who are equally or more talented than they are. Purdue certainty is in the latter category.

Purdue is one of six schools nationally (and only two power-conference schools) to rank in the top 50 in field goal percentage (19th), 3-point percentage (11th) and free throw percentage (41st). Purdue is 91-of-138 (.659) from inside the 3-point arc in the last four games.

The best offense UW has faced this season has been BYU, and a Cougars offense that is currently ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency averaged 1.38 points per possession in a 98-point onslaught. Purdue is ranked No.1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, having averaged 1.30 points per possession or better in eight of 13 games this season.

This would be a tough matchup if Wisconsin was at full strength, but head coach Greg Gard admitted that Winter is still fighting through an ankle injury suffered Dec.23. Purdue's frontcourt is experienced and formidable, a reason Purdue is eighth in offensive rebound percentage (.406). It's going to be hard for UW's inexperienced frontcourt to keep up.

Wisconsin is better defensively than it was a month ago when it last played a Big Ten game, getting blown out by still undefeated Nebraska, but the Badgers haven't improved enough to keep up with Purdue for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers are 3-1 in Madison when ranked in the AP Top 5, including victories in each of their last two visits to the Kohl Center. Tonight should be number three.

Prediction: Purdue by 19
Worgull's Prediction: 11-2 (7-6 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 130 (10.0 ppg)

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