Notre Dame vs. Louisville football game prediction, pick: Who wins, and why

Notre Dame looks to extend its supremacy over ACC teams in this Week 6 game against undefeated Louisville

This week finds Notre Dame facing off under the lights against a ranked team for the third-straight game and hoping to avoid a second loss on the year as the No. 10 Fighting Irish square off against undefeated, No. 25 Louisville in college football's Week 6 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

Louisville entered the AP top 25 rankings after starting 5-0 on the season and coming off a hard-fought win on the road against NC State, posting just under 495 total yards per game and working behind a stellar air attack with quarterback Jack Plummer averaging over 300 yards each time out.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction, pick

Notre Dame vs. Louisville predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 7
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Notre Dame vs. Louisville game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Notre Dame -6.5
Total: 53.5 points
Moneyline: ND -250 | UL +188
FPI pick: Notre Dame 70.5% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Notre Dame plays disciplined football at the line on defense and generates a lot of consistent pressure through its interior pass rushers. Clogging those A and B gaps will be critical for the Irish against Cards back Jawhar Jordan. The junior is 1st nationally with 3 plays of 70-plus yards, has eclipsed 100 yards rushing in 7 of his last 10 games, and is posting 7.3 yards per carry, good for 6th among all backs.

2. Plummer vs. ND's secondary. The Louisville quarterback comes into the game ranking No. 1 in the ACC and No. 5 in the country with 10.7 yards per pass completion. And he's working with a rotation of quality targets, led by Jamari Thrash, a deep threat who averages over 20 yards per catch and has 5 of the Cardinals' 12 passing TDs. Notre Dame's second-level tacklers are keeping tight coverage, holding opposing passers to just 47 percent completion, but will have to be on guard against a passing attack that is 4th nationally in explosive pass rate.

3. First quarter. Rarely are games ever decided in the opening frame, but Louisville is playing some of its best football there, holding opponents to zero points through five games, while putting up 34 combined in the first quarter on offense. Notre Dame is a respectable 34th nationally, scoring 7.6 points on average in the first quarter and 45 points total there.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction

Notre Dame vs. Louisville picks / USA Today Images

The one relative weakness Louisville has in the matchup is rushing the quarterback, ranking 104th nationally in sack rate, an indication of how often it's getting near the passer. And going against a line of Notre Dame's caliber, protecting a quarterback of Sam Hartman's historic production, will be a problem.

Hartman started the year throwing the ball 145 times with no interceptions, the fourth-best streak of such a kind in Irish football history, and his 14 TD passes with no turnovers is the best mark among QBs nationally.

Audric Estime is posting over 7 yards per carry to balance it out, and with the Irish secondary holding firm most of the night, that should be enough to keep ND in the playoff chase with the USC game coming next.

College Football HQ picks...

• Notre Dame wins 27-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

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