Georgia vs. Kentucky football preview, prediction
Back in the preseason, the battle between Georgia and Kentucky was supposed to be the game that determined the SEC East champion.
But in the months since then, Georgia clearly established itself as the favorite while Kentucky, despite a strong start to the season and a No. 7 national ranking, has fallen to a 6-4 record and dropping three of its last five games.
Among those was a loss at home as a ranked team to SEC basement-dweller Vanderbilt, which snapped a 26-game losing streak in the conference by beating the Wildcats, who have struggled on both sides of the ball.
Even with Georgia's dominance up to now, there's still a job to do: it might be able to still make the College Football Playoff with a loss, but it wouldn't be a good look to struggle against a team clearly on the downswing this late in the year.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Georgia vs. Kentucky preview, prediction
Week 12 college football predictions: Georgia vs. Kentucky
How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
How to watch: Georgia vs. Kentucky predictions, game time, schedule, TV channel, streaming
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Georgia comes into Saturday as the 22.5 point favorites over Kentucky, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 48.5 points
Moneyline: Georgia -2400, Kentucky, +1150
FPI prediction: Georgia has the 92.9 percent edge to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computers that predict winners by simulating a team's season 20,000 times using past scores. Kentucky has the 7.1 percent chance to pull off the upset.
Georgia vs. Kentucky: What you need to know
Kentucky. Watch how the Wildcats both run the ball and stop the Bulldogs from running it. The re-emergence of running back Chris Rodriguez has been an important development for the UK offense.
Having missed early games with a suspension, the lead rusher has hit 100 yards on the ground in four of his last five appearances, giving Kentucky some needed balance offense, especially as quarterback Will Levis' output has taken a downturn: he hasn't hit 20 passes in a game since September and hasn't thrown a touchdown in two of his last three games.
The big number for Kentucky is 330: when it allows teams to surpass that mark in total yardage, it's 0-4. When it allows fewer, UK is 6-0. Georgia has been over 330 in every game this season.
Georgia. College football's defending national champions have preserved their historic defensive gains from last season, all while getting more aggressive on the attack, too. It ranks 6th nationally in scoring offense, allowing 40.6 points per game, and is 2nd in the country in scoring defense, surrendering 11.6 points per game. No opponent has scored more than 22 on this team, which has held five to 10 or fewer points, and the offense has eclipsed 33 points in 7 of 9 games.
Tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington are among the nation's best and critical to Georgia's passing attack. Bowers leads the team with 615 receiving yards to go with four touchdown grabs, while Washington has 392 yards and a score. Both are big, physical targets who create mismatches in the middle of opposing defenses, and have the speed to outrace tacklers to the end zone.
One area where Georgia can improve is sacking the quarterback. Despite the unit's overall dominance, it ranks just 10th in the SEC with 17 sacks this season. Kentucky has struggled protecting the quarterback, placing 126th out of 131 in FBS by allowing 39 sacks this season.
Fast Facts
+ UK has kept opponents to 24 of fewer points in 13 of its last 14 games
+ Georgia is 1 of 3 schools to rank top 10 in scoring offense and defense
+ Kentucky has allowed 30 or fewer points in 55 of its last 62 games
+ Georgia is 64-4 under Kirby Smart when leading at halftime and 11-10 when not
+ UK is 40-19 when scoring first under Mark Stoops
+ UGA's Stetson Bennett is 3rd nationally with 8.36 yards per play
+ Kentucky is 7-33 under Stoops when allowing 30-plus points
+ Georgia is 1st nationally scoring 55 of 56 times in the red zone (39 TDs)
+ Wildcats are 4-1 when they return a kick or punt for a TD and 0-5 when their opponent does
+ Georgia has posted 21 scoreless quarters on defense
+ Kentucky's Barion Brown is 2nd nationally with 30.7 yards per kickoff return
+ Bulldogs are minus-2 in turnover margin
+ Kentucky and UGA are tied with 32 INTs since 2020, 3rd most in SEC
+ Georgia has won 10 straight games in an opponents' home stadium
Georgia vs. Kentucky Prediction
The combination of Will Levis' injury-slowed production and Kentucky's relative inability to keep the quarterback clean is a deadly combination coming into a matchup with Georgia's aggressive front seven.
Moreover, UK won't be able to get its pursuit group behind the line to properly throw Stetson Bennett out of rhythm, and the Cats will struggle creating running lanes getting consistent short and medium gains against the Bulldogs' front.
Georgia will do what it usually does: hit on a couple of big early plays to create a cushion and then settle in for the second half.
College Football HQ Prediction: Georgia 37, Kentucky 13
College Football Playoff Rankings
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- TCU
- Tennessee
- LSU
- USC
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Utah
- Penn State
- Oregon
- North Carolina
- Ole Miss
- Kansas State
- UCLA
- Washington
- Notre Dame
- Florida State
- UCF
- Tulane
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon State
- NC State
- Cincinnati
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams