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North Carolina vs. Wake Forest odds, spread, lines: Week 11 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest on the Week 11 college football schedule
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ACC rivals meet up in a cross-division matchup as North Carolina travels to Wake Forest in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

North Carolina is holding firm to the top position in the Coastal Division standings with an 8-1 mark overall and a 5-0 showing against ACC competition thanks in large part to the expert play of quarterback Drake Maye.

Wake Forest is reeling after two straight losses, including an eight-turnover fiasco at Louisville and a road defeat against ranked division foe NC State, with a 6-3 mark overall and below .500 in conference games at 2-3.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest picks, predictions

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye drops back for a pass in a college football game in the ACC.

Week 11 college football picks: North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Wake Forest's chance of victory: Despite the team's recent struggles, the computers favor the Deacons to win the game with 54.2 percent likelihood.

North Carolina's chance of victory: FPI projects the Tar Heels have the 45.8 percent shot to take down Wake and avoid what would be its first ACC loss.

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest point spread: Wake comes into the game as the narrow 4 point favorites to defeat North Carolina, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 76.5 points

Moneyline: Wake Forest -200, North Carolina +145

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Nov. 12 at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the ESPN2 network and streams on fuboTV (Start your free trial).

North Carolina predictions: FPI projects the Tar Heels will win 10.2 games this season with a 25.6 percent chance to win the ACC Championship, second only to Clemson. UNC sits at No. 28 on the index's 131 college football rankings.

Wake Forest predictions: The computers estimate that the Demon Deacons will win 7.7 games this season as the 36th ranked team nationally coming into this weekend.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

  1. Georgia (62 1st-place votes)
  2. Ohio State (1)
  3. Michigan
  4. TCU
  5. Tennessee
  6. Oregon
  7. LSU
  8. USC
  9. UCLA
  10. Alabama
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Clemson
  13. Utah
  14. Penn State
  15. North Carolina
  16. Tulane
  17. NC State
  18. Texas
  19. Liberty
  20. Notre Dame
  21. Illinois
  22. UCF
  23. Kansas State
  24. Washington
  25. Florida State

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Alabama | Georgia | LSU | Ohio State | Michigan | Notre Dame | Tennessee | USC | Clemson | Oklahoma | Texas | All Teams

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