Greg McElroy predicts Georgia Tech-Duke winner in Week 8

Week 8 analysis from ESPN's Greg McElroy favors Duke’s disruption on defense and an efficient passing attack.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy picked Duke to win against undefeated Georgia Tech. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

The unbeaten Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets travel to face the Duke Blue Devils in a matchup that blends speed, balance, and pressure. The stakes are simple. Georgia Tech wants to keep a perfect start intact and Duke wants to validate a three game surge in ACC play. The contrasts are clear as well. Georgia Tech leans on tempo and a downhill run game, while Duke stresses an explosive pass attack that punishes soft zones and busted leverage.

On ESPN’s Always College Football podcast, Greg McElroy looked past the records and favored traits over labels. The analyst pointed to Duke’s ability to create negative plays and to stretch the field through the air. He sees a defense that gets offenses off schedule and a passing game that tilts the math on key downs.

McElroy put a firm stamp on it. “I’m taking Duke. I think they’re too disruptive on defense. I think their passing attack can cause some problems as well.”

Greg McElroy Picks Duke Over Georgia Tech Based On Disruption And Passing Edge

McElroy’s lean matches what the numbers and recent form suggest. Duke averages 310.0 passing yards per game, which sits near the top of the national rankings, and scores 36.5 points per game. That production pairs with a defense designed to create havoc. Duke is +5 in turnover margin and ranks among the nation’s leaders at taking the ball away, which matters against a Georgia Tech team sitting at minus three in giveaways versus takeaways. Possessions decide modern games, and free possessions decide them faster.

Third downs and protection also frame the pick. Duke allows opponents to convert 43.8 percent on third down, a number that must improve, but Georgia Tech’s red zone rate allowed of 77.8 percent shows the Yellow Jackets can stiffen late in drives. That is where Duke’s passing game must finish series, not only move the sticks. The passing game has the tools.

Darian Mensah completes 69.8 percent of his throws with a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception line, and Cooper Barkate has emerged as a reliable target in space. The ground game gives balance with Nate Sheppard and Anderson Castle rotating fresh legs, and Jaquez Moore adding burst after a timely return.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) has accounted for 1,411 yards of offense and 13 total touchdowns. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech counters with clear strengths. Haynes King runs a 238.0 yards per game rush attack that ranks near the top of the FBS, and Malachi Hosley adds pop to inside and off tackle concepts. The Yellow Jackets' sack total against Virginia Tech shows they can affect the pocket, which means Duke’s line must be sturdy after allowing 12 sacks this season.

The tradeoff favors the home side if Duke stays ahead of the chains, limits penalties, and lets Mensah work rhythm throws. That is the disruption and passing edge McElroy emphasized when he picked Duke.

Matchups And Metrics That Will Shape Duke Versus Georgia Tech

The game turns at the line of scrimmage and in the pocket. Brian Parker II said it plainly this week, calling it “a game in the trenches” and pointing to the emphasis Duke has placed on the run game to keep the offense balanced. That approach is practical against a Georgia Tech front that just hit Virginia Tech’s quarterback four times for sacks. Keep Mensah clean and the passing windows open. Lose protection and Georgia Tech’s pressure packages can flip momentum.

Explosive plays figure next. Georgia Tech gains 476.8 yards per game and sits at 36.7 points per game, which means Duke’s defense will give up yards between the 20s. The job is to win the leverage downs. Georgia Tech converts 47.1 percent on third down, so early down fits and disciplined rush lanes are mandatory to keep King in the pocket.

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) has 1,838 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The Yellow Jackets also carry a heavy rush rate, so tackling and containment on quarterback keepers and zone reads must be crisp. Duke’s time of possession sits at 27:52 on average, which places more pressure on efficiency. Empty drives cannot stack up against a team that runs fast and finishes.

Hidden yardage and discipline could swing this, too. Duke’s penalty yardage is high and Georgia Tech’s is more moderate, so the Blue Devils must trim flags that turn second and medium into second and long. Red zone execution is a final pivot. Duke has improved since September but Georgia Tech’s defense inside the 20 has been sturdy. If Duke trades touchdowns for field goals, the edge shrinks. If Duke protects the ball, plays clean on third down, and lets Mensah distribute on time, McElroy’s call gains weight.

Duke will host Georgia Tech on Saturday at noon ET on ESPN.