USC vs. UCLA football preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?
A pair of ranked Pac-12 rivals square off in the Rose Bowl as USC and UCLA meet with conference title and national playoff implications in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.
USC comes in at 9-1 on the season and ranked No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings with a shot to pass an important test and move towards Pac-12 title contention and consideration for the top four in the polls.
Place your bets: College football picks against the spread for Week 12
UCLA moved down to 16th in the latest CFP poll after a surprise loss at home to an unranked Arizona team it was a three-TD favorite against going in.
Predictions: USC vs. UCLA score projection by computer model
Both teams come in with potent offenses, averaging around 40 points and 500 yards per game.
USC vs. UCLA preview, prediction
USC vs. UCLA football predictions
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How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 19
Time: 5 p.m. Pacific
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Tune in: USC vs. UCLA predictions, game time, TV/streaming info
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: USC comes into the game as narrow 2.5 point favorites to defeat UCLA, a 1-point move in the Trojans' favor since the open, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 76.5 points
Moneyline: USC -130, UCLA +110
FPI prediction: USC has the 60.3 percent edge to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computers that predict winners by simulating a team's season 20,000 times. UCLA has the 39.7 percent shot to win.
Pick 'em: USC vs. UCLA odds, spread, lines: Week 12 college football picks, predictions by computer model
USC vs. UCLA: Keys to victory
USC. Everybody knew the Trojans would be worlds better on offense after signing Lincoln Riley to coach this team, and so far the results have been impressive. Caleb Williams is 3rd in college football with 31 touchdown passes and 12th nationally with 301 passing yards per game.
Wide receiver Jordan Addison is 2nd in the Pac-12 with 7 TD catches, and that's despite missing two games. But watch how well USC replaces the production lost by Travis Dye's injury: running back Austin Jones figures to take the lead, going for 6.4 ypc despite just 52 carries this year. Dye's absence will be felt, though: he had 43% of the team's rushes.
Like the Trojans, UCLA boasts a credible threat working off the edge: Laiatu Latu can work tackles with agility and power, recording 9.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks.
UCLA. Key to the Bruins' success this season has been the play of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet. Both were critical in UCLA's rout over the Trojans a year ago, accounting for seven combined touchdowns.
DTR is hitting 71% of his throws with 20 TDs and just four picks while Charbonnet is at 1,145 yards for 7.5 ypc and has 13 of the team's 29 rushing scores. USC is 7th against the pass and 8th against the run among Pac-12 teams, while UCLA is posting over 240 yards on the ground per game.
Both will have to navigate around a decent Trojan pass rush off the edge led by Tuli Tuipulotu, the standout defensive end who has 17.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. Keep out of his reach, and the Bruin offense can generate rhythm early.
Fast Facts
+ UCLA has won 8 of its last 9 games at home
+ The winner of this series has scored 34-plus points in 10 of the last 11 meetings
+ USC has won 17 of the last 23 against UCLA
+ UCLA is 1 of 6 teams averaging over 500 total yards per game
+ USC has scored 40-plus in 4 straight games for the first time since 2003
+ Zach Charbonnet is 1st nationally with 176.88 all-purpose yards per game
+ Trojans' 424 points are their most through 10 games in school history
+ Charbonnet is 1st with 7.53 yards per carry
+ USC scored 40 points in 8 games, tying a school record from 2003
+ UCLA has scored 7 touchdowns of 50-plus yards
+ USC's Caleb Williams is 3rd nationally with 22.2 points per game
+ UCLA is 14-3 in games where DTR runs for a touchdown
+ Williams' 0.6 percent INT rate is 2nd best in USC history
+ Bruins are 12-2 when Charbonnet runs for over 100 yards
USC vs. UCLA Prediction
So far, the story surrounding USC in Year 1 of the Lincoln Riley experience has more or less lined up with expectations: it can pile up the points, but its defense will keep opponents in games, too.
That will especially be the case this week as DTR and Charbonnet will strike the kind of pace and balance that has stymied the Trojans' defensive project since the season began. And with more success than other, subpar Pac-12 opponents.
But the Bruins have not fared well when defending against the pass. In losses to Oregon and Arizona, quarterbacks hit nearly 8 in 10 passes and routinely threw receivers open in the intermediate portion of the field where coverage was lacking and late in pursuit.
Of the quarterbacks that UCLA will face this year, Caleb Williams is the best. The USC signal caller has been the picture of consistency, combining careful decision making with deeper-field accuracy and touch and the mobility to extend plays and move tacklers out of position.
Our projections hint this could go either way by a field goal, but the performance of UCLA's secondary against Arizona exposed more than enough to shift the preference towards the Trojans. It'll take all four quarters.
College Football HQ Prediction: USC 37, UCLA 35
College Football Playoff Rankings
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