107-Win Head Coach Predicted to Lead Unexpected Program to College Football Playoff

A new coach at a major college football program is expected to lead his team to the College Football Playoff.

Matt Campbell answers questions from the media after being announced as the Penn State Nittany Lions new head coach | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The 2025-2026 college football coaching carousel created one of the most chaotic realignments in recent memory. Beginning in the middle of September and ending in the middle of December, nearly 20 different Power Four programs experienced head coaching changes.

One of the very first moves in the cycle came from Penn State when it made the decision to part ways with James Franklin following its loss to Northwestern. Franklin had served as the Nittany Lions' head coach for 12 seasons, winning 10 or more games in half of those years.

Penn State was one of the last Power Four programs to make a decision on its next head man, but it reeled in a proven winner. The Nittany Lions named former Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell as their seventeenth head coach on Dec. 5, 2025.

Campbell ascended the coaching ladder as an offensive assistant, primarily working as an offensive line coach and run game coordinator. He made stops at Mount Union, Bowling Green and Toledo before the Rockets named him head coach in the 2012 offseason.

In Campbell's four-year tenure, Toledo was 35-15 overall and won nine games in three of the four seasons. Iowa State hired Campbell away from the Rockets before their trip to the Boca Raton Bowl in 2015.

Iowa State football head coach Matt Campbell reacts during Iowa State and BYU football at Jack Trice Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa State became a steady football program during Campbell's decade-long tenure. The Cyclones were bowl eligible in eight of those ten seasons with a pair of Big 12 Championship appearances. Campbell left Iowa State as the program's winningest coach and the first to end his tenure with a winning record since Earle Bruce in 1978.

Campbell's proven track record and the cast of characters he brings from Iowa State to Penn State have brought about optimism for the future of the Nittany Lions. J.D. PicKell and Kaiden Smith of On3 projected which first-year head coach is most likely to guide his team to the College Football Playoff on Wednesday. Smith's choice was Campbell and Penn State.

"Penn State has a very workable schedule," Smith said. "I know Matt Campbell wasn't the slam dunk hire. I know that, for some reason, every other quarterback who transferred to a new school the offseason, we see them all over people's top 10-20 rankings. Rocco Becht has been completely forgotten about despite him going to Penn State and being the most experienced quarterback in college football."

Penn State does not play a Power Four opponent in any of its three non-conference games. The Nittany Lions miss all three Big Ten College Football Playoff participants from a season ago; USC, Michigan and Washington all appear on the schedule after finishing at 9-4 in 2025.

The Big Ten Championship game's history spans 16 seasons, and only two of those games have featured Penn State (2016 and 2024). As for the College Football Playoff, an appearance in the 2026-2027 would be the Nittany Lions' second following a one-year hiatus.