$5.3 million college football quarterback predicted to return to school, forgo NFL Draft

As the college football calendar winds down, Texas’ quarterback situation has become a national story.

Arch Manning finished the 2025 regular season with 2,942 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while rushing for 244 yards, eight rushing TDs and posting a 145.8 passer rating.

These numbers helped Texas reach a 9-3 regular-season mark (6-2 SEC) and a No. 13 ranking going into bowl season.

Manning’s sustained performance has positioned him as a credible 2026 NFL draft candidate, even as doubts persist about his readiness.

Monday’s PFF 2026 mock draft, in a writeup projecting the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 19, explicitly assumed a scenario where "it’s feeling increasingly likely that Arch Manning … return[s] to school," which pushed that mock to address other positional needs instead of quarterback.

That framing echoes multiple recent takes suggesting Manning is as likely to stay in Austin for 2026 as he is to jump to the NFL.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. — Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a pass during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Manning arrived at Texas as one of the most hyped recruits in recent history: a five-star, consensus No. 1 quarterback in the 2023 class out of Isidore Newman (New Orleans) with five-star ratings across the major services.

He carried a pedigree and a polished high school resume (over 9,700 total yards and 140 total TDs) that fueled early NFL and media projections long before he even logged a college start.

2025 was Manning’s first extended turn as Texas’ starter, and while he showed growth, he also displayed some inconsistency against top defenses.

Still, he remains the highest‑paid athlete in college sports, with an NIL valuation of $5.3 million, fueling debate over whether that lessens his motivation to leave school early.

Underclassmen are generally required to apply for special eligibility for the NFL Draft by mid‑January, with the league setting Jan. 15 as the standard deadline and allowing slight adjustments for players from earlier‑finished seasons or championship teams.

That timeline gives Manning and Texas several weeks after bowl play to consult agents, advisers and the NFL’s College Advisory Committee before a final call.

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