Rece Davis Predicts Major Change in College Football Amid Massive Coaching Buyouts

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis believes the 10- and 11-year buyouts that have cost schools hundreds of millions of dollars will shrink or disappear as programs shift that money toward paying their rosters.

"Logic tells me, and that might be dangerous in and of itself, that these buyouts are going to diminish over the next several years," Davis said on a recent College GameDay podcast episode. "The wiser play financially ... is to commit that level of money to your roster."

Davis added that he expects the sport to move toward "a little bit more of an NFL coaching model," a shift he called "probably the wisest course of action" given where the industry stands.

Record $228 million in 2025 buyouts

Rece Davis Predicts Major Change in College Football Amid Massive Coaching Buyouts — Former LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly looks on against the South Carolina Gamecocks | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Schools owed a record $228 million in buyouts to 15 fired head coaches in 2025, the largest total in college athletics history. More than $1.1 billion has gone to fired coaches since 2004.

Former LSU coach Brian Kelly carried the largest bill at $54 million, the second-largest buyout in college football history behind the $76 million Texas A&M owed Jimbo Fisher in 2023. Penn State's James Franklin ($49 million), Florida's Billy Napier ($21 million), Auburn's Hugh Freeze ($15.8 million) and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy ($15 million) followed.

How do coaching buyouts actually work?

A buyout is the guaranteed money a school still owes a coach it fires without cause, usually a large share of the salary left on his contract. Kelly signed a 10-year, $95 million deal in Baton Rouge, and LSU owed him 90% of the remainder after dismissing him in October 2025. The school later tried to treat the move as a firing for cause, and Kelly sued to recover his buyout.

Many contracts include offset language that reduces the payout once a coach finds new work. Franklin's deal required him to look for a job, and after he took over at Virginia Tech, Penn State's obligation fell from $49 million to $9 million.

Davis' roster argument centers on the size of those checks. Under the House settlement, a school can share a maximum of $21.3 million with its athletes in 2026-27, so Franklin's original buyout exceeded two full years of that cap.

Lincoln Riley's USC buyout decision

No FBS program fired its head coach through September, though pressure has built on coaches such as South Carolina's Shane Beamer, who headlined our college football hot seat index after Week 5. USC coach Lincoln Riley faces the most expensive decision.

CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reported that Riley's future came under "serious question" after a 41-27 home loss to Oregon on Sept. 26, with a buyout of roughly $70 million attached. Riley signed a 10-year, $110 million contract and is 5-15 against ranked opponents with the Trojans.

Davis urged caution for a program that beat Washington 25-21 last week and sits at 5-1 heading to Penn State.

"Have they underperformed relative to expectations and hopes? Yes. Have they appeared a little soft at times in the past? Absolutely. Have they stunk? No, they haven't," Davis said. "So I think the determining factor is: Have you lost the team, and do you feel like you have any momentum as a program?"

He said that momentum "was lost last year at Penn State" under Franklin and praised Iowa's Kirk Ferentz for repeatedly reversing slides, adding, "Very few coaches can do it."

"That's what USC has to decide with Lincoln Riley," Davis said. "And I think they should be very careful because rosters are paramount, and they've got freshman dudes."

Those freshmen arrived as the nation's No. 1 recruiting class in the 2026 cycle.

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