David Pollack Picks Winner of Florida-Missouri

A week ago, Florida was the team in prime position to deliver an upset while playing at home against an opponent, Ole Miss, that was coming off a huge win the previous week.

The role is reversed in Week 5 for the No. 8-ranked Gators (4-0, 2-0 SEC), who delivered their statement with a 52-28 win over that then-top-5 Rebels team and now must avoid a letdown of their own on the road against No. 25 Missouri (3-1, 0-1).

Florida is set as a 5.5-point road favorite, per DraftKings Sportsbook, in a matchup that kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.

College football analyst David Pollack dissected the matchup on his "See Ball Get Ball" podcast.

Alabama-Mississippi State, Ohio State-Iowa, Florida-Missouri AND MORE Week 5 CFB Picks https://t.co/8vWS9mTHpm
— David Pollack (@davidpollack47) October 1, 2026

"I want to be Missouri so bad in this matchup because everybody, everybody is like 'Oh, this Buster Faulkner guy's good. This Jon Sumrall guy's good!'" Pollack said of Florida's much ballyhooed new offensive coordinator and head coach. "We've been talking about it for a while -- welcome aboard everybody.

"Here's the thing why this matchup becomes really awesome. You have that going for you, again, just like [with Florida vs. Ole Miss] last week, Missouri is playing at home. Florida is not sneaking up on anybody, right?"

David Pollack Makes His Prediction For Florida-Missouri

Pollack explained why he believes Missouri can potentially be a tough matchup for the Gators and what the Tigers are going to need to do to pull the upset.

To put it simply, that requires slowing down running backs Jadan Baugh (600 rushing yards and 11 TDs on 7.2 yards per carry) and Duke Clark (259 yards and 3 TDs on 8.1 YPC) and a Florida rushing attack that ranks 11th nationally at 260.0 YPG while forcing quarterback Aaron Philo to make more plays with his arm.

Philo, the Georgia Tech transfer who followed Faulker to Florida and is in his first season as a starter, has only attempted 87 passes in four games for 917 yards, 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Philo was 16-of-23 passing for 196 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs plus a rushing TD in the win over Ole Miss.

"Missouri's defense, watching them vs. Mississippi State, Missouri's defense always finds a way to be physical, they always find a way to be good in the front 7. They can rush the passer, 10 coming off the edge is consistently a problem," Pollack said of edge rusher Daeden Hopkins, who has 6 sacks and 2 forced fumbles already. "... Here's what I'm interested to see, this is the only thing that matters to me, can you put it in Philo's hands? Like literally, at some point who can make Philo be a QB because right now -- and I'm not knocking Philo, they're doing what they need to do and they're undefeated -- but right now Philo is getting worn out by handing that thing off.

"Over 300 [rushing yards] a game the last two games against Auburn and Ole Miss. That is a feat, that is impressive. The offensive line is impressive. The system is impressive. Who is going to be the first to say, 'Philo, you've got to beat me'? And can he go through progressions and make those plays when it's not the easy stuff. Can you take away the layups, get him off schedule a little bit? If Missouri can do that at home, that will be interesting for me to watch. That's what I'm looking for the most in this game."

Missouri lost its SEC opener 31-24 at Mississippi State last week and has played only one other Power 4 teams so far (a 38-21 win at Kansas).

The Tigers are led by quarterback Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss transfer who has passed for 947 yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs so far. Jamal Roberts (395 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 4.4 YPC) leads the rushing attack, that is still waiting for star Ahmad Hardy to return as he continues to recover and work back from an offseason gunshot wound.

Ultimately, Pollack is picking the Gators to win by a comfortable margin. He's a believer in what Sumrall has built in his first season at Florida.

"I trust Florida by this point now, I do. I trust them," Pollack said. "I will say this, Florida's receiving corps is banged up to heck. It's going to be very interesting to watch them. I've got Florida 38, Missouri 27ish. I'm trusting Florida on the road after a big game."

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