Greg McElroy predicts double-digit winning margin in Week 13's USC-Oregon matchup

The ESPN analyst previews USC at Oregon, emphasizing run game, defense, and Autzen’s impact.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy picks the Oregon Ducks to win by double digits in Week 13 against the USC Trojans. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The latest word from ESPN’s Always College Football arrived with clear stakes and a clear choice. College football analyst Greg McElroy set the scene for No. 17 USC's trip to No. 8 Oregon, framing a matchup that could swing postseason paths for both programs. He underscored the playoff context, the Autzen environment, and what each team has shown on the road.

McElroy walked through the pressure points. USC must avoid a third loss to keep real hope alive, while Oregon seeks a ranked win to strengthen its case. He noted Autzen Stadium’s impact and the Ducks’ recent control of the series. The former Crimson Tide quarterback turned analyst also pointed to USC’s road setbacks and Oregon’s strong record in Eugene under Oregon head coach Dan Lanning as determining factors in his prediction.

From there, he weighed strengths. USC brings high-end explosiveness with quarterback Jayden Maiava and wide receiver Makai Lemon. Oregon brings balance, efficiency, and a deep ground game behind running backs Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison, with quarterback Dante Moore operating at a high completion clip. The contrast formed the spine of his call.

Greg McElroy Picks Oregon Over USC At Autzen, Citing Run Game And Defense

McElroy’s reasoning leaned on identity and matchups. “I’m taking the Oregon Ducks in this game,” he said, pointing to teams that can run the ball and stop the run. He described Oregon as the more complete and trustworthy group, then added, “I think their commitment to the run game, they’ll get SC a couple times. I think the Oregon Ducks win this game by 10.”

The numbers support his view of how it could look. Oregon averages 233.6 rushing yards per game and 39.0 points per game. USC’s defense allows 145.8 rushing yards per game, and that run-fit inconsistency has appeared at key moments.

The Ducks also limit explosive plays through a top-tier pass defense that allows 127.3 passing yards per game, creating difficult windows for deep shots that USC often relies on.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and the Ducks could effectively end USC's postseason chances with a win on Saturday. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

McElroy also flagged areas where USC can counter. The Trojans are elite in the red zone, converting 94.0 percent of trips, while Oregon’s defense has struggled there. If USC finishes drives and avoids giveaways, it can compress the margin. Still, Oregon’s third-down efficiency, turnover edge, and home-field record under Lanning tilt the pregame math toward the Ducks.

Personnel availability remains a subplot for Oregon’s receivers, which has pushed more load to tight end Kenyon Sadiq and the backs. Moore’s 72.8 percent completion rate and low sack total fit the current formula: stay on schedule, distribute, and let the run game control tempo. That is the style McElroy trusts in a high-pressure spot.

The Oregon Ducks will host the USC Trojans on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.