Greg McElroy names SEC program on upset alert in Week 4

Razorbacks favored, but Memphis smells opportunity at home

College football analyst Greg McElroy cited the Memphis Tigers having a chance to upset the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 4. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Greg McElroy circled Arkansas’ trip to Memphis as a danger spot long before it hit the national radar. On Always College Football, the former Alabama quarterback framed the matchup as a high-scoring showcase inside Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, where the Tigers are 41-7 at home since 2018. He noted Memphis’ chance to elevate its resume against an SEC opponent and an Arkansas team still calibrating after a narrow loss to Ole Miss.

McElroy praised the Razorbacks’ ceiling while stressing the risk factors that can tilt a road game. He pointed to Taylen Green’s explosive two-way start and a rebuilt receiver room, but balanced it with Memphis’ clock-control ground game and a front that limits rushing lanes.

He distilled his outlook simply, saying he leans toward Arkansas yet expects a high-scoring tug-of-war that could swing late.

Why McElroy Put Arkansas On Upset Alert Against Memphis

McElroy’s caution starts with quarterback play and game state. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has been “outrageously good,” piling up more than 300 rushing yards with back-to-back 100-yard ground games and throwing for 866 yards and 11 touchdowns. He stressed that Green’s evolution “is not exclusive to what he does running the football,” pointing to 15 completions of 25-plus yards and a revived rapport with receiver O’Mega Blake.

Memphis, though, counters with balance and a disruptive front. McElroy highlighted Ryan Silverfield’s identity as “methodical, efficient, really committed to the run game,” with Sutton Smith leading a ground attack that chews clock and limits possessions.

Memphis Tigers quarterback Brendon Lewis (2) has completed 73.3% of his passes for 608 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, also adding two scores on the ground. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

He singled out defensive tackle William Whitlow Jr. as an interior anchor for a defense allowing fewer than 70 rushing yards per game against FBS foes, and he flagged the Tigers’ ability to “get Arkansas off schedule” by winning on first down.

He also pointed to Arkansas’ pressure points. The Razorbacks’ third-down defense has been leaky, and protecting the football is imperative after Green “put the ball on the deck 12 times” last season. That vulnerability collides with a Memphis defense that has already forced multiple turnovers and thrives in long, drive-ending downs. Add in quarterback Brendon Lewis’ mobility and a steady dose of 12- and 13-play drives, and McElroy sees a path to late-game stress for the favorite.

The Trench Test And The Clock

The game, McElroy argued, compresses to the line of scrimmage and tempo. Arkansas’ “entire ecosystem is predicated on staying on schedule,” starting with four-plus yards on first down and a downhill complement from running back Mike Washington to Green’s edge speed. Do that and the Razorbacks control time of possession and unlock play-action explosives to Blake and a revamped receiver room.

Memphis will try to flip that script by stacking early stops, grinding the clock and forcing Arkansas into third-and-long. McElroy underscored that approach repeatedly, noting the Tigers “run the ball 56% of the time” and can manufacture eight-minute marches that double as defensive wins.

Arkansas Razorback quarterback Taylen Green (10) has passed for 866 yards and 11 touchdowns with 307 rushing yards and two touchdowns. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

If that rhythm holds and the Tigers steal a possession with a takeaway, his upset alert moves from theoretical to tangible.

If it turns into the shootout he anticipates, McElroy still leans Arkansas by a whisker. Kickoff is noon ET Saturday on ABC from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis.