First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread For College Football Playoff Round 1

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

College football picks for Round 1 of the playoffs / Sports Illustrated

There are 11 games left in the College Football Playoff, and Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan are still racing to 40 winning picks against the spread. Both competitors have stumbled in the final stretch of the competition, but Pat is just five correct picks away from winning, while Iain's only hope is going 9-2 in the College Football Playoff.

We have four games to watch and bet on in the opening round of the playoffs, so let's take a look to see which team each competitor is backing.

All odds listed are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Pat's College Football Playoff Round 1 Picks

Alabama -1.5 vs. Oklahoma

Neither team is exactly rolling into the playoffs, and both have struggling offenses that cannot run. But the Crimson Tide has been a bit better in the passing game in conference play than the Sooners. Tighten up the special teams that hurt Bama when the two teams played in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide will advance.

Miami +3.5 vs. Texas A&M

The Aggies also are not entering the playoffs operating at a high level. They were completely outplayed in the second half against Texas, and before that, they nearly blew their season at home against South Carolina. The Hurricanes are good at the line of scrimmage and won’t be pushed around.

Ole Miss -17.5 vs. Tulane

If this were a 35-point game the first time around, it looks like a 21-point game this time with Lane Kiffin out of the mix. The coaching transition at Tulane also has to be factored in. If the Rebels take care of the ball, they should roll.

James Madison +21.5 vs. Oregon

The Dukes are better than they’ve been given credit for, with an offense that can generate big plays and a defense that can create negative plays. I’m not feeling a straight-up upset, but I believe JMU can hang around and keep it interesting into the fourth quarter.

Iain's College Football Playoff Round 1 Picks

Oklahoma +1.5 vs. Alabama

I bet on Oklahoma to upset Alabama earlier this season, and I'll do it again in the rematch. This, in my opinion, is a matchup between an underrated Sooners team and an overrated Crimson Tide team. Oklahoma ranks 15th in adjusted net EPA per play and 12th in net success rate. Alabama ranks 22nd and 30th in those two metrics.

Texas A&M -3.5 vs. Miami

Miami got off to a hot start to its season, but you can't discount the fact that the Hurricanes have regressed in the second half of the season with losses to Louisville and SMU. The Aggies' secondary is one of the best in the country, ranking third in opponent pass success rate, which will play a big role in shutting down Carson Beck and the Hurricanes' offense.

Ole Miss -17.5 vs. Tulane

Tulane may have won the AAC, but the Green Wave weren't the best team in the conference. Tulane ranks just 46th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and 66th in net success rate. Lane Kiffin may no longer be with Ole Miss, but that doesn't mean the Rebels can't steamroll the Green Wave in the rematch.

James Madison +21.5 vs. Oregon

I have no doubt Oregon will win this game. The Ducks' skill and talent will eventually take over, but James Madison, in my opinion, is the best Group of Five team in the country. The Dukes rank seventh in the country in adjusted net EPA per play and first in net success rate. They may surprise some people in this game, and I have faith in them being able to cover this 21.5-point spread.

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