LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Who wins, and why?

Oklahoma, or more accurately its tough defense, has put itself back on the right side of the College Football Playoff picture, but with two losses, there is no room for error as they host LSU in the regular season finale game on Saturday.

LSU may not look like much of a challenge, having fired its coach and losing four games while playing some surprisingly inconsistent offense, but it still packs a punch on the defensive side of the ball.

LSU vs. Oklahoma: What to watch

LSU vs. Oklahoma football game prediction 2025 — Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

1. Oklahoma defense vs. LSU offense

Oklahoma boasts one of the nation’s best scoring defenses, allowing about 14 points per game, while LSU sits outside the top 100 in scoring offense and has lacked efficiency in recent weeks.

If the Sooners’ front controls early downs, something they have done to devastating effect in recent weeks, can limit LSU’s run game, and force predictable passing situations, LSU will struggle to sustain drives and match Oklahoma’s scoring.

2. Third downs, red zone, and field position

Both teams lean on their defenses, and most previews project a total in the mid‑30s, signaling that third downs, red‑zone trips, and punt‑driven field position will be decisive.

Oklahoma has been better at turning drives into points and protecting the ball, while LSU’s path is to force field goals, win special teams exchanges, and keep the Sooners’ third‑down conversion rate closer to the sub‑50% mark some analysts expect.

3. LSU’s defensive havoc and spoiler role

LSU owns a top‑20 scoring defense and is among the better teams nationally in turnovers forced, giving it a realistic chance to ugly up the game and steal possessions.

With Oklahoma a win away from locking up a College Football Playoff berth and LSU already out of that race, the Tigers’ best shot is to embrace the spoiler role, attack aggressively on defense, and create short fields that their inconsistent offense can actually convert.

Who is favored?

Bettors like the Sooners by more than double digits this weekend.

Oklahoma is a 10.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 35.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -480 and for LSU at +370 to win outright.

LSU vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

LSU absolutely has the pieces in the secondary, a group that leads the SEC in opposing passer efficiency, to credibly challenge the Sooners’ ability to create consistently downfield, and will be able to slow down this offense long-term.

But the failure of the LSU offense, now with a change at quarterback and after failing to generate any threat on the ground this season, will play right into the hands of an Oklahoma defense that has almost singlehandedly put this team in the playoff hunt.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 24-20
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the over

More: LSU vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert model

How to watch LSU vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Nov. 29
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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