Predicting college football's 12-team field based on AP top 25 preseason rankings

While the AP top 25 preseason college football rankings may not be a perfect scientific prediction model for that to expect as the season unfolds, it’s also true that those teams that debut near the top of the polls tend to compete for the national championship.

That competition opened up in a big way starting last season, when the College Football Playoff expanded its field from four teams to 12, based on the five highest-ranked conference champions and the other highest-ranked at-large teams.

There was a change to how teams are ranked this year, as the top four seeds no longer automatically go to conference champions, resulting in a less confusing straight-seeding model, a major change in the process that was implemented this offseason.

Now that the preseason AP top 25 football rankings have gone live, we have a somewhat clearer picture of how voters see the top of the field in the sport heading into the 2025 season.

What would the College Football Playoff field look like today, based off the initial AP top 25 voters’ rankings?

1. Texas

Predicting the CFP field based on AP top 25 preseason college football rankings for 2025 — Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

SEC champion

For the first time ever, Texas has debuted as the No. 1 team in any preseason poll, and for good reason, boasting what might finish as the best defense in the SEC behind one of the nation’s most ferocious edge rushing combinations.

Arch Manning steps into the QB1 role to lead an offense that includes what should be a strong ground game with Quintrevion Wisner in the backfield once again and some elite field-stretching skill at wide receiver.

2. Penn State

Big Ten champion

While the Longhorns earned the most No. 1 votes in the preseason poll, it was by no means a consensus selection, as the Nittany Lions finished a very close second with just two fewer first-place votes on the final ballot.

Quite a vote of confidence in a team that returns the core of a very skilled offense and another deep defensive rotation, but still needs to beat the best of the Big Ten in order to make another deep College Football Playoff run.

3. Ohio State

At-large

The reigning national champion earned 11 first-place votes, and even though they wouldn’t finish as Big Ten champions according to these initial rankings, they would still play their way into a first-round bye if the playoff started today.

Based on how teams with those byes performed in last year’s playoff, and how the No. 8 seed Buckeyes ultimately fared, that may not be a desirable outcome. First things first, replacing a ton of outgoing talent at coordinator and all over the field.

4. Clemson

ACC champion

The heavy betting favorite to win the ACC Championship for a second-straight season with quarterback Cade Klubnik returning after mounting a personal-best effort last year, accounting for 43 total touchdowns to get the Tigers into the playoff after a four-year absence.

He’s surrounded by an experienced line and quality receivers, and Clemson’s defensive front should be dominant yet again, but this team wavered at crucial moments a year ago, including in an uninspiring first-round CFP loss at Texas.

5. Georgia

At-large

The reigning SEC champions don’t get a repeat this year if we go by these preseason rankings and would miss out on the first-round bye, too.

Georgia replaces its quarterback, some key interior blockers, bring on new receiving targets, and have to get more from a rushing attack that was second-worst in the SEC.

6. Notre Dame

At-large

Thanks to the committee changing how it seeds teams, the Fighting Irish no longer have to settle for something outside the top four, as they had to last season because they can’t play for a conference championship.

Plenty comes back for the CFP runner-up from a year ago, including one of college football’s top backfields, but they have to find the right replacement at quarterback.

7. Oregon

At-large

Last year’s No. 1 overall seed after an undefeated, Big Ten championship season, the Ducks would have to settle for the No. 7 position with no first-round bye in this projection.

Dan Lanning’s roster-building and recruiting bona fides will be tested as Oregon makes crucial replacements all over the field, including at quarterback.

8. Alabama

At-large

Some good luck possibly for the Crimson Tide, who project as the early No. 8 seed, the same place Ohio State started out a year ago before embarking on its national title run.

Kalen DeBoer returns key defensive output from last season’s roster and a quality offensive line to pair with some stud skill players, but the quarterback position is up in the air after the departure of playmaking Jalen Milroe.

9. LSU

At-large

Some relief for an LSU fan base that is starting to wonder if Brian Kelly can get this team to the playoff after three seasons on the outside looking in.

Garrett Nussmeier returns to lead an aerial attack that finished seventh in the country last season in production, in tandem with some elite receiving skill and a defense that gets Harold Perkins back in the middle with some top-flight transfers coming off the edges.

10. Miami

At-large

Last season, it looked like the Hurricanes were College Football Playoff bound with Cam Ward at the helm under center commanding the nation’s No. 1 overall offense.

But the Canes tripped over their shoelaces and went 1-2 late in the year, putting an end to those hopes. Carson Beck, the two-year starting quarterback at Georgia, replaces Ward, but Miami’s defense needs to tighten up on the back end to earn CFP consideration.

11. Arizona State

Big 12 champion

A second-straight playoff appearance could be in the cards for the Sun Devils, who have the disadvantage of playing in the Big 12, by far the most competitive Power Four conference going this season.

Cam Skattebo is out of the picture, depriving this offense of its heart and soul in the backfield, but quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson should prove enough firepower to put this team back in the picture.

12. Boise State

Predicting the College Football Playoff based on the AP top 25 preseason rankings for 2025 — Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Group of Five selection

Another repeat performer from last season? The Broncos are once again considered the class of the Group of Five, even without all-world back Ashton Jeanty on the field.

Maddux Madsen returns at quarterback and the Boise defense gets enough of its production back to keep this team in the race.

College Football Playoff bracket projection

First Round Byes: No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Clemson

(12) Boise State at (5) Georgia
(11) Arizona State at (6) Notre Dame
(10) Miami at (7) Oregon
(9) LSU) at (8) Alabama

First 4 out: Illinois, South Carolina, Michigan, Florida

Next 4 out: SMU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

1. Texas

2. Penn State

3. Ohio State

4. Clemson

5. Georgia

6. Notre Dame

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

9. LSU

10. Miami

11. Arizona State

12. Boise State

College Football Playoff bracket projection

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