ESPN computer updates prediction for every SEC football team's win-loss record in 2025

The last two seasons has found the SEC kept out of the national championship game, leading to some speculation that the conference which has held college football in thrall over much of this century may have lost its touch.

Not so fast, as Lee Corso would say, as the SEC is still firmly in position to send multiple teams to the College Football Playoff and once again are several of the conference’s contenders among the betting favorites to make a run for the national title in 2025.

ESPN has revealed its preseason 136-team college football rankings, a database of predictive analytics that look to forecast how each team and conference is expected to fare in every game of the forthcoming 2025 football season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Here’s what the model makes of the SEC this coming season, and where each team will finish in the eventual standings in 2025.

16. Mississippi State

ESPN computer predicts SEC football win-loss records in 2025 — Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Prediction: 4-8

College Football HQ says: Not much faith in the Bulldogs from any prediction models after they went winless in SEC play a year ago, and not returning much to build around, save quarterback Blake Shapen, and they once again play one of the toughest schedules in college football.

15. Vanderbilt

ESPN computer predicts SEC football teams' win-loss records in 2025 — Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Prediction: 5-7

College Football HQ says: This would certainly be a letdown after the Commodores’ successful 2024 effort that included knocking off No. 1-ranked Alabama, especially with Diego Pavia back to lead what should be a fast-moving offense, but he could use some help on the line of scrimmage.

14. Kentucky

Chance to win SEC: 0.1%

Prediction: 6-6

College Football HQ says: Mark Stoops, the SEC’s longest tenured coach, was just 1-7 in conference play a year ago, and faces plenty of outgoing talent including three blockers for new quarterback Zach Calzada, but the Wildcats should have a decent run game to build out from.

13. Arkansas

Chance to win SEC: 0.5%

Prediction: 6-6

College Football HQ says: Taylen Green should be reliable leading this offense, but the Hogs’ quarterback needs to have the right reinforcements on an offensive line in transition and hopes his coaches have found enough answers in the transfer portal to replenish a wide receiver room that loses its top half-dozen producers from last season.

12. Missouri

ESPN computer predicts SEC football teams' records in 2025 — Kylie Graham-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.6%

Prediction: 7-5

College Football HQ says: Some of Missouri’s top offensive stars are out of the picture, and while their replacements have promise, they’re not quite as experienced as their predecessors. In the meantime, it’ll rely on a solid defense returning up to 7 starters that includes Georgia transfer Damon Wilson on the edge.

11. Florida

Chance to win SEC: 1.0%

Prediction: 6-6

College Football HQ says: A depressing prediction for Florida after its strong finish a year ago, and while it does play college football’s toughest schedule, at least according to ESPN’s projection, it also has DJ Lagway in at quarterback again, aided by a gifted running back room,and one of the SEC’s best offensive lines, but this receiver rotation is dealing with some injuries this preseason.

10. Oklahoma

Chance to win SEC: 1.2%

Prediction: 7-5

College Football HQ says: John Mateer steps in at quarterback after a solid year at Wazzu, and former Cal back Jadyn Ott is a major gain who can credibly test SEC run defenses. Both should give the Sooners’ offense some oomph after a lousy 2024 outing, but they need the line to play much better and for OU’s receivers to overcome their respective injury bugs.

9. South Carolina

Chance to win SEC: 1.8%

Prediction: 7-5

College Football HQ says: Talk about a downgrade after the Gamecocks won 9 games last season behind a defense that was one of the most ferocious in college football, but enough of those contributors are gone, and Carolina needs to replace outgoing talent at running back and receiver.

8. Auburn

Chance to win SEC: 1.8%

Prediction: 7-5

College Football HQ says: Coming off two losing seasons, the pressure is on Hugh Freeze to right the ship, but he returns an elite receiving corps that added transfer Eric Singleton, and brings on quarterback Jackson Arnold, who should benefit from a wideout rotation he sorely lacked at OU.

7. Ole Miss

ESPN computer SEC football teams' records in 2025 — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 2.8%

Prediction: 8-4

College Football HQ says: Not much returns on this defense, with an expected two starters back, but linebacker Suntarine Perkins could form a very strong foundation on that side of the ball, while youngster Austin Simmons steps in for Jaxson Dart at quarterback.

6. LSU

Chance to win SEC: 3.5%

Prediction: 8-4

College Football HQ says: This would mark a second-straight regression on the field for Brian Kelly in the face of an LSU fan base that could be losing patience in him, especially with Garrett Nussmeier returning at the helm of an aerial attack that ranked top 10 last season and what should be an improved defensive rotation.

5. Tennessee

Chance to win SEC: 4.2%

Prediction: 9-3

College Football HQ says: Nico Iamaleava was supposed to give the Vols’ offense some continuity after losing lead back Dylan Sampson and some key receiving talent, but his exit paves the way for Joey Aguilar, the UCLA transfer who is a proven commodity throwing the ball, if also prone to turnovers on occasion.

4. Texas A&M

Chance to win SEC: 4.3%

Prediction: 8-4

College Football HQ says: This offense should put up numbers with all five line starters coming back, boasting one of the top backfields in the country, and scoring wide receiver transfers like KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, and with quarterback Marcel Reed back in place to steer the ship.

3. Alabama

Chance to win SEC: 17.2%

Prediction: 9-3

College Football HQ says: Winning 9 games again won’t cut it for Kalen DeBoer, who has a big question at quarterback with no more Jalen Milroe and his highlight plays to lean on, but the Tide does have a very strong line, elite receivers, and a gifted defense that returns 7 starters.

2. Georgia

Chance to win SEC: 26.9%

Prediction: 10-2

College Football HQ says: We’ll see if Gunner Stockton has what it takes to live up to his billing as a recruit as he steps into the QB1 role full time, working behind a new-look line, throwing to some new targets, and hoping the Bulldogs can balance this offense by improving a rushing attack that was 15th in the SEC a year ago.

1. Texas

Chance to win SEC: 34.1%

Prediction: 10-2

College Football HQ says: Arch Manning gets the attention with that name on the back of his jersey, but early on the Longhorns will rely more on a promising run game led by Quintrevion Wisner and what might end up being the best defense in the SEC to carry this team until Manning finds his bearings. And if he does, look out.

16. Mississippi State

15. Vanderbilt

14. Kentucky

13. Arkansas

12. Missouri

11. Florida

10. Oklahoma

9. South Carolina

8. Auburn

7. Ole Miss

6. LSU

5. Tennessee

4. Texas A&M

3. Alabama

2. Georgia

1. Texas

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