Teams Rising & Falling in New ESPN FPI Ratings After Week 4

Week 4 of the college football season had plenty of ups and plenty of downs, and with ESPN's released FPI ratings, it's easy to track who's on the rise and who's on the fall. Granted, ESPN's computers don't come without their own share of controversy, For instance, off Texas's big weekend.... the Longhorns slid to No. 4. At least Ohio State isn't still No. 1. But what's unavoidable are big jumps and drops for surprising and underperforming teams. Here's the biggest gainers and fallers from the four power conferences.

Rising

Arkansas (up 14 spots to 60th)

Good news and bad news are present for the Hogs off their 34-6 win over Tulsa. The good news is the biggest jump in the power conferences... the bad news is they're still in the SEC basement. ESPN gives Arkansas just an 8.7% chance to reach six wins and in a league where 14th place Kentucky is ranked 36th in all of college football, it's not hard to see why that could be. Joining Arkansas in being predicted unlikely to win six in the SEC are Vanderbilt (35%) and South Carolina (39.9%).

Wisconsin (up 12 spots to 41st)

In rallying from a 17-0 deficit to post a gritty 24-20 win at Penn State, Wisconsin may have saved coach Luke Fickell's job. With the upset, the Badgers even are given a 5.8% chance to make the jump into the College Football Playoff. More directly, FPI now projects their most likely record as 8-4, which would be a substantial step for Wisconsin.

Stanford (up 10 spots to 92nd)

In a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech, Stanford made a climb... but has plenty of room left to move. The Cardinal are still in the basement of the ACC, and in fact are in the basement of all power four teams. But Stanford now has a 12% chance per FPI to pick up six wins and reach a bowl. Just keep winning and it's all there.

Falling

Coach Mike Locksley and Maryland took a rough Week 4-- on the field and in the FPI. (Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Maryland (down 26 spots to 74th)

Ugly, ugly week for the Terps. A 54-3 loss to UCLA was as brutal as it sounds. And their FPI fate went tumbling in a way that nobody else saw from Week 4. Maryland's Playoff shot, of course, went to zero, and their shot at six wins dipped to 12.8%.

SMU (down 11 spots to 37th)

It was a season of promise for SMU, but off a grinder of a 34-24 win over FCS MIssouri State, FPI has sent the Mustangs into the thick of the ACC pack. They're still given a 4.7% chance to reach the Playoff and a 2.4% shot to win the conference-- and most teams on this list would grab their 96% chance at six wins. But mediocrity looks to be SMU's lot in 2026.

West Virginia (down 10 spots to 59th)

Off a surprising 3-0 start, WVU tumbled back to earth in a 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State. Mark West Virginia into a group of Big 12 teams that FPI thinks will have a struggle to win six games. Bag TCU, Iowa State, and Arizona State into that group with the Mountaineers.

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