Aaron Judge’s Historic Home Run Pace: Can He Reach 600?

Aaron Judge has made Major League Baseball history plenty of of times already throughout his career when it has come to his prolific power. Whether you are a New York Yankees fan or not, you have been able to see one of the best sluggers in MLB history in his prime.

Judge already has four seasons under his belt already with 52 homers or more. Plus, let's not forget, that he broke Roger Maris' record for the most homers in a season in the American League back in 2022 when he smashed 62 long balls. The hulking Yankees slugger is starting to find his groove as well right now. Judge is leading the American League with seven homers and four of them have come in the last four games. Judge's seven homers in 18 games is a pace of 63 homers in 162 games. That certainly will be tough, but it does raise the question, how high can he go?

Judge has moved up the record books a few times throughout the season. He passed his Yankees teammate Paul Goldschmidt and now is in front of former All-Star Rocky Colavito at No. 81 on the all-time homers list with 375. He's one spot behind Carlton Fisk, who finished his career with 376 homers.

But, again, just how high can Judge go? Let's take a look at where he stands and what he would need to do to reach the top big league milestones.

How High Can Aaron Judge Go?

Apr 15, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Current Home Run Total: 375

Age: 33 years old and 355 days

Games Played: 1,163 games

Contract: Nine-years, $360 million (Through the 2031 season)

Breakdown: Here we are. Judge has 375 homers in 1,163 games played. That's a pace of 52 homers across 162 games played. But, of course, there have been injuries over the years and a shortened 2020 campaign. His pace hasn't slowed down at all. As noted above, he's on a 63-homer pace right now. So, he can still hit the ball out of the ballpark better than pretty much every other person alive. So, right now, we don't have to worry about a drop-off due to age.

Last year, Judge hit 53 homers in 152 games played. In 2024, he hit 58 homers in 158 games played. In 2025, Judge also hit seven homers in his first 18 games. He only had three homers in his first 18 games in 2024. So, when it comes to the 2026 season, let's assume he stays healthy and falls somewhere between his last two seasons. Let's call it 55 homers. That would bring his career total to 423 after the 2026 season.

He'll be 34 years old when the 2027 season kicks off and is under contract for five seasons (2027-2031).

Race To 500 Homers

Our 2026 projection is based on good health and keeping the prolific pace he has had this season along with the last two. If he enters the 2027 season with 423 homers (or somewhere in that neighborhood), we're talking about the 2028 season as a likely time for Judge to break 500 long balls, if he stays healthy. He's just about to turn 34 years old and hasn't slowed down at all with homers. If he cracks over 50 this year and over 50 next year, he would be in range of 500 homers in mid 2028. If he were to hit 55 in 2026 he'd finish the season with 423 homers. If he hits in the neighborhood of 50 homers in 2027, he would be around 470 heading into 2028 at 36 years old — he'll turn 36 years old April 26, 2028 — with three seasons left on his deal.

All in all, with good health he should reach 500 homers in 2028 comfortably.

Race To 600 Homers

This is where the numbers start to get a little trickier. If he does reach 500 homers around mid-2028, he would have a chunk of the 2028 season, plus the 2029, 2030 and 2031 seasons all under contract still. He's going to turn 36 years old in April of 2028. He'll turn 37 years old in April of 2029. He'll turn 38 years old in April of 2030. He'll turn 39 years old in April of 2031. Soon enough, Father Time will come calling. It's the one thing that no athlete can beat.

Athletes can delay, like LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers, but soon enough, there is some sort of drop-off. If Judge can stay around a 50-homer pace, or so, in 2026 and 2027 and at least a chunk of the 2028 season, he could afford to drop down to a pace around 30 homers from 2029-2031. But, all of this chatter is taking two big things into account: Judge's health and the 2027 season isn't disrupted by labor negotiations when the CBA expires after the 2026 season ends.

Two massive "ifs." 600 homers is possible. But it is also asking a lot of a guy to crush over 50 homers in 2026, over 50 homers in 2027, between 40-50 homers in 2028 and then somewhere around 30 homers from 2029-2031. One major injury or a work stoppage in 2027 would derail the entire conversation.

Only nine players in Major League Baseball history have hit 600 or more homers: Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome and Sammy Sosa. Judge made his big league debut on the later side. For example, Sosa had 499 homers through his age-33 season because he had 1,875 games under his belt by then. Rodriguez had 583 homers through his age-33 season and played in 2,166 games. Griffey had 481 homers through his age-33 season in 1,914 games. The list goes on. When it comes to Judge, he's hitting homers at a pace that is insane, even in comparison to the greats of the game. If there is anyone who could break the mold, it will be him. But he needs a lot to go right.

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