Braves vs. Phillies Wild Card Series Game 3: Who Advances to NLDS?

Who will advance to play the Dodgers?

Sep 30, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (7) makes a play to get out Philadelphia Phillies pinch runner Derek Hill (49) at second base in the ninth inning during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With a 4-3 come-from-behind win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the National League wild card series, the Philadelphia Phillies kept their season alive after a heartbreaking loss in Game 1. Now, the series is tied, and the winner will advance to the division series for a matchup with the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Starting for the Phillies will be right-hander Aaron Nola. The Braves will counter with left-hander Ray Kerr. It all comes down to one final game of this series to determine who advances to the NLDS. Here are cases for both the Phillies and Braves to win this game.

Why the Braves will win

Sep 30, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) celebrates as he scores a run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Braves won Game 1 of this series and had a better home record during the regular season than the Phillies' road record. Obviously, Atlanta is at home and has that advantage. The Braves also played much better than the Phillies did against teams above the .500 mark in 2026, and they beat the Phillies to the top of the NL East by six games.

They'll have their fans behind them at home for the final game of this series. And even though the Braves are starting with an opener, they have Grant Holmes ready in relief after Kerr is done, so they are set up well for this game. The Phillies are also 1-3 in franchise history in winner-take-all games.

Why the Phillies will win

Sep 26, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While Nola's numbers during the regular season weren't great (7-12 with a 4.67 ERA), he does have a track record of pitching in the postseason. The Phillies have also beaten the Braves twice in the postseason dating back to 2022. The Braves have never beaten the Phillies in the postseason in franchise history, so that is one edge that the Phillies have.

In addition, the Phillies have the momentum after being down 3-1 in the eighth inning in Game 2 and pulling off a comeback. The Braves are going with a bullpen game, so the pitching matchup does favor the Phillies, who will have a more rested bullpen.

It will be an interesting game, but the Phillies do have several advantages that the Braves do not despite playing on the road for the finale. The momentum built from the comeback in Game 2 can ultimately be what pushes Philadelphia forward after they came very close to being eliminated in a two-game sweep by their division rivals.