Breaking Down the San Diego Padres' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

By replacing Blake Snell with Dylan Cease and adding Michael King in the Juan Soto trade, the San Diego Padres have kept their starting rotation highly competitive in 2024.

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

Even though the San Diego Padres went into the winter with cost-cutting in mind, they still managed to construct a competitive roster with a mostly high-level starting rotation. While NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell left to join the San Francisco Giants, longtime Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease and former New York Yankees reliever Michael King arrived via trade to round things out.

Here is a quick preview of how San Diego's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Yu Darvish, RHP
2023 Stats: 8-10, 4.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.4 WAR
2024 Projections: 10-10, 4.12 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.6 WAR

Darvish, a five-time All-Star, is coming off arguably his worst season since arriving in MLB back in 2012. The 37-year-old veteran was a true ace in his time with the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs, and he even thrived with the Padres back in 2022, but Darvish has a lot of work to do to prove his best days aren't behind him just yet.

2. Joe Musgrove, RHP
2023 Stats: 10-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.6 WAR

During his days with the Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates, Musgrove was a steady, end-of-the-rotation starter. Ever since joining the Padres in 2021, however, he has been an All-Star level hurler. Now on the wrong side of 30, it remains to be seen if Musgrove will post an ERA below 3.20 for the fourth year in a row.

3. Dylan Cease, RHP
2023 Stats: 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.7 WAR (CHW)
2024 Projections: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.8 WAR

While Cease is starting off as the third man in the Padres' rotation, he was arguably their most important addition of of the offseason. Even though he is coming off a shaky 2023, Cease was elite in 2021 and the runner up for AL Cy Young with the White Sox in 2022.

4. Michael King, RHP
2023 Stats: 4-8, 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.2 WAR (NYY)
2024 Projections: 9-9, 3.86 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 WAR

The Padres weren't going to sign outfielder Juan Soto to a long term extension, which is why they traded the superstar to the Yankees in December. As part of that deal, they got back the 28-year-old King, who has been an elite innings-eating reliever over the last three seasons.

5. Matt Waldron, RHP
2023 Stats: 1-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 0.1 WAR
2024 Projections: 4-6, 4.80 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 0.5 WAR

Waldron wasn't stellar in his limited time with the Padres last season, but he more than held his own. Waldron may eventually get replaced by Jhony Brito or Randy Vásquez – two other prospects who came over in the Soto trade – but he is at least capable of being an end-of-the-rotation major league starter in the meantime.

Replacing Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, who combined for 50 starts of overwhelmingly solid work in 2023, could prove difficult, which puts pressure on King, Waldron and the rest of the young guns to step up in 2024.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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