Breaking Down the Toronto Blue Jays' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

While Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah are working through injuries, the Toronto Blue Jays still have José Berríos heading up a deep and experienced starting rotation this season.

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

The Toronto Blue Jays are trying to return to the postseason for the fourth time in five years, once again hoping to ride their veteran rotation to October. Hyun-Jin Ryu is gone, but the rest of manager John Schneider's group is still mostly intact, plus a few possible new faces.

Here is a quick preview of how Toronto's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. José Berríos, RHP
2023 Stats: 11-12, 3.65 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-10, 4.09 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 WAR

Berríos won the Opening Day nod heading into 2024, which certainly seems warranted for the two-time All-Star and former Minnesota Twins standout. He may have struggled throughout his first full season in Toronto in 2022, but he won a Gold Glove and posted one of his most efficient campaigns yet in 2023.

2. Chris Bassitt, RHP
2023 Stats: 16-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-11, 4.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 WAR

As the oldest pitcher left in the Blue Jays' rotation, Bassitt is as reliable and consistent as they come. The only time the 35-year-old has posted an ERA over 4.00 came back in 2016, when injuries limited him to five starts, and he has snuck onto one All-Star team between his years with the Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics and New York Mets.

3. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
2023 Stats: 11-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 1.8 WAR
2024 Projections: 10-9, 3.98 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 WAR

Kikuchi being the lone lefty in Toronto's five-man rotation places a lot of pressure on him to eat up innings and remain steady throughout 2024. The 32-year-old was an All-Star in 2021 and is fresh off a career year in 2023.

4. Bowden Francis, RHP
2023 Stats: 1-0, 1.73 ERA, 0.826 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 0.9 WAR
2024 Projections: 4-4, 4.48 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 0.2 WAR

Francis really took advantage of his starts in Spring Training, going 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in the Grapefruit League. He probably won't hold onto his spot in the rotation for very long – he has only ever pitched out of the bullpen in the big leagues – but he should still be an important member of the pitching staff once everyone is at full strength.

5. Kevin Gausman, RHP
2023 Stats: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 WAR
2024 Projections: 13-10, 3.44 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 4.5 WAR

Gausman would have been in the running for the Opening Day starting spot, but he is still recovering from a shoulder injury. He is likely to take over as a co-ace once he gets back to 100% considering he's been an All-Star twice in the last three years.

Alek Manoah, an All-Star in 2022, is injured as well. He had a tumultuous 2023 campaign, so it remains to be seen if he can jump right back in as a starter in 2024.

27-year-old Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez is also in line to make some starts while Gausman and Manoah are banged up, even though he hasn't pitched in real games since leaving Japan in 2022. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann would lend some youth and another left-handed arm to Toronto's rotation, but the group may too too crowded for him to break into right off the bat.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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