Breaking Down Toronto Blue Jays’ Rotation Following Blockbuster Max Scherzer Signing

Max Scherzer heading north of the border rounds out an intriguing and deep Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation that also features Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt.

Houston, Texas, USA: Texas Rangers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

After weeks of rumors, the Toronto Blue Jays were finally able to land a veteran starter Thursday night.

Toronto agreed to a one-year deal with future Hall of Fame pitcher Max Scherzer, rounding out their rotation with a 40-year-old right-hander. Scherzer’s arrival should give the Blue Jays more depth and flexibility, at the very least, as they try to return to the postseason in 2025.

Wth Spring Training just two weeks out, here is how the Blue Jays’ rotation is currently shaping up:

1. Kevin Gausman, RHP
2. José Berríos, RHP
3. Chris Bassitt, RHP
4. Max Scherzer, RHP
5. Bowden Francis, RHP

Gausman may not be a prototypical ace at this point in his career, but he is a steady force who can be relied upon for 30-plus starts and 175-plus innings. After placing top-10 in Cy Young voting three years in a row from 2021 through 2023, Gausman finished 2024 with a 14-11 record, 3.83 ERA, 1.221 WHIP and 0.9 WAR.

Year-over-year, Gausman's strikeouts per nine innings dropped from an AL-best 11.5 to 8.1. If the 34-year-old can bounce back in that category and miss more bats, the two-time All-Star should have a successful season once again.

Berríos is a two-time All-Star himself, although he made both appearances with the Minnesota Twins. The Blue Jays may have had buyer's remorse when the righty posted a 5.23 ERA, 1.419 WHIP and -0.6 WAR in 2022, but he has gone 27-23 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.170 WHIP and 4.6 WAR in his 64 starts since.

Bassitt, like Gausman, was a fringe Cy Young contender through the early 2020s. In the decade leading up to the 2024 season, Bassitt boasted a 3.49 ERA and 1.192 WHIP.

Last year, though, Bassitt hit the most batters in the AL, on top of seeing his ERA climb to 4.16 and his WHIP balloon to 1.462 for the first time since 2016. He is now heading into his age-36 season, so there is cause for concern about his stuff.

Scherzer has also seen his production tail off in recent years, all while dealing with a laundry list of injuries.

Between 2013 and 2022, Scherzer was an eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner with a 2.78 ERA, 0.979 WHIP and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Since 2023, Scherzer owns a 3.81 ERA, 1.128 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings – still impressive numbers, but a far cry from his former self.

The fifth and final spot in the Blue Jays' rotation is likely to go to Bowden Francis. Unlike the four veterans above him, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Francis is actually trending up.

Francis was among the best pitchers in all of baseball down the stretch last summer, going 5-3 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.600 WHIP after he rejoined the rotation on July 29.

Scherzer's arrival bumps Yariel Rodríguez out of the five-man group. The Cuban right-hander went 1-8 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a -0.1 WAR across 21 starts as a rookie in 2024, and Toronto seemed intent on moving him to the bullpen.

There isn't much room left for Alek Manoah, either, although the once-promising righty is still recovering from elbow surgery and likely won't be back until after the All-Star break anyways.

Taking out his nightmare 2023 campaign, Manoah is 26-11 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.013 WHIP, 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a 8.4 WAR in his big league career. So if he can get eased back into a long relief or sixth-starter role, the Blue Jays could have another dangerous arm on their hands for the home stretch.

Even disregarding Scherzer’s age, he will return to free agency next winter – as will Bassitt. Gausman will hit the open market the following offseason, putting the Blue Jays’ future in the hands of the rest of the rotation.

Manoah has three years of club control remaining, while Berríos has four and Francis and Rodríguez have five. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, will likely be big-league ready by the time the veterans are phased out, as will 2024 first round pick Trey Yesavage.

That will give Toronto a solid rotation come 2027, so someone like Scherzer should help bridge the gap perfectly.

Related MLB Stories

• PROGRESS ON VLADDY DEAL: According to a new report, the Blue Jays are getting closer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s asking price. CLICK HERE

• TORONTO OFFERS BREGMAN: While the Astros are holding firm in their negotiations with All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman, the Blue Jays have entered the same ballpark. CLICK HERE

• BLUE JAYS FARM SYSTEM PANNED: The Athletic's Keith Law ranked Toronto's devisive collection of prospects at No. 24 ahead of the 2025 season. CLICK HERE

Follow Fastball On SI on social media

Continue to follow our Fastball On SI coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.

You can also follow Sam Connon on Twitter @SamConnon.