Insider Predicts Aaron Judge Vs. Cal Raleigh AL MVP Winner

New York Yankees superstar slugger Aaron Judge is the reigning American League Most Valuable Player but that title could change hands once the regular season comes to an end.

Judge has been great this year when he has been healthy and on the field. There's no denying that. In 134 games played he has slashed .321/.442/.660 with a 1.103 OPS. On top of this, he has hit 44 home runs, driven in 98 runs, stolen 11 bases, hit 28 doubles, and scored 115 runs. He's leading the American League in a handful of offensive categories including: WAR, runs, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases.

He's rightfully so in the mix for another MVP award.

But, the other guy right there with him right now is Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners. He has been a superstar in his own right.

Who will win?

Sep 8, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) stands at the plate during a fourth inning at bat against the St. Louis Cardinals at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Right now, Raleigh is leading the American League with 53 home runs and 113 RBIs. His overall numbers outside of homers and RBIs may not be as prolific as Judge's, but he's doing something never-before-done at the catcher position while also playing stellar defense. Because of this, ESPN's
Bradford Doolittle predicted that he will end up winning the American League Most Valuable Player Award over Judge.

"Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn't over," Doolittle said. "It shouldn't be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh's historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.

"After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site's version of WAR...Prediction: Raleigh breaks (Mikey Mantle's) record, doesn't reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line."

More MLB: MLB Playoff Picture: Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox Can Gain Most - Or Lose