Ken Rosenthal Explains Why He Thinks Cubs Might Be in Trouble Against Padres

The insider doesn't "see the Cubs surviving this"

Sep 25, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) at bat against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last year, the Chicago Cubs eliminated the San Diego Padres from the postseason with a 2-1 Wild Card Series victory. But ahead of their rematch in the 2026 playoffs, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal shared his thoughts on why the outcome could be different this time around.

During a recent segment on the Fair Territory with Ken Rosenthal podcast, Rosenthal discussed why he doesn't see Chicago "surviving" this year's postseason showdown with San Diego. The senior reporter believes the Padres' two major advantages in this best-of-three Wild Card series are playing at Petco Park and their bullpen.

"I don't see the Cubs surviving this," Rosenthal said. "I see the Padres winning it, but we'll just have to see how this all goes down. It's gonna be a fascinating series because the Cubs have been a tremendous team all year. One of the best offenses in the league, one of the best defenses in the league. The Padres don't play defense quite as well, but they have the two big things going for them: the home-field thing and the bullpen, which is maybe the most dominant aspect of any team in this postseason."

Padres vs. Cubs should be a thrilling playoff matchup

Sep 26, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller (22) celebrates after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Rosenthal makes two valid points about the Padres ahead of Tuesday's game against the Cubs. San Diego was 51-30 at home this year, tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the fourth-best home record in 2026. Meanwhile, the Padres went 40-41 on the road this season, so they've clearly found more success at Petco Park.

While San Diego has a few talented hurlers in its starting rotation, the Padres can really shorten a game if they have the lead with Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller lurking in the bullpen. Somewhat interestingly, the Padres also have right-hander Joe Musgrove on their Wild Card roster. The 33-year-old hasn't pitched in the majors in almost two years, so it's unclear what role he'll play for San Diego.

For Chicago, all eyes will be on presumptive National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. In 2025, the young outfielder went 5-for-27 with no home runs and 12 strikeouts in eight playoff games. If the Cubs are going to win this series on the road, they'll undoubtedly look for their young star to lead the charge against the Padres.