Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NL Wild Card Game 1

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres are home favorites against the Cubs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres are home favorites against the Cubs. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are set to face off in the NL Wild Card Series for the second straight year. The Cubs advanced as the home team last year, but this year’s series will be played at Petco Park.

Chicago also won five of six games against San Diego this season, winning the last five after the Padres opened with a 9-7 win.

How will things shake out in this year’s NL Wild Card Series?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Cubs vs. Padres Game 1 on Tuesday, Sept. 29.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-206)
• Padres -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline

• Cubs +105
• Padres -126

Total

• 7 (Over -117/Under -103)

Cubs vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Cubs: Matthew Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA)
• Padres: Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA)

Matthew Boyd closed out his regular season with seven innings of one-run ball against Miami on Thursday. He had yielded two runs (one earned) in five innings in Cincinnati in his previous start.

Michael King is looking to shake off his final start of the regular season, as he allowed five runs on six hits in four innings against the Dodgers last Sunday. He’s had plenty of time off to get ready for this one.

Cubs vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Cubs record: 89-73
• Padres record: 91-71

Cubs vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Bases (-104)

Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t have a great start to the season, hitting just .277 with a .713 OPS in the first half. However, after hitting five home runs in those 95 games, he hit 20 home runs while batting .307 with a .996 OPS in his final 64 contests.

The San Diego slugger went 31 for 92 (.337) with eight home runs, three doubles, and one triple in 23 games this month. He went OVER 1.5 bases in 16 of those 23 contests.

Cubs vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I broke down this pick in SI Betting’s daily MLB best bets column, Walk-Off Wagers:

The Cubs appear to have the Padres number, but how much does last year’s series and six games earlier this season really matter? 

San Diego finished the season on a tear, going 18-4 in their final 22 games to steal the top Wild Card spot from the Cubs and earn home-field advantage in this series. On the other hand, Chicago lost its final two series, dropping two of three to both Miami and Boston.

That could make a huge difference, as the Padres went 51-30 at home this season while the Cubs were 43-38 on the road.

I have to back the Padres as short home favorites in this one.

Pick: Padres -126

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