Mariners Could Lose 23-Year-Old Hurler To Rival Club, Experts Claim

Next week brings an interesting checkpoint during the Major League Baseball offseason.

At the end of the winter meetings, which run from Sunday through Wednesday and usually feature some big-name free-agent signings, the 30 clubs all have the opportunity to select players in the Rule 5 Draft. The Seattle Mariners, who are in position to contend next season, could lose prospect talent to rebuilding teams willing to take a shot at rostering a yet-to-debut player.

With Wednesday fast approaching, a pair of MLB Pipeline prospect experts recently took a stab at projecting who the most likely prospect for the Mariners to lose might be.

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Will Michael Morales be selected in Rule 5 Draft?

On Thursday, Sam Dykstra and Jesse Borek of MLB Pipeline projected right-handed pitcher Michael Morales as the Mariners' most likely prospect to be picked up by a rival club on Wednesday. If that were to happen, the club would have to keep Morales on the active roster (or injured list) all season, or he'd be returned to Seattle.

"Dating back to his Single-A debut in 2022, Morales has compiled the 11th-most innings (472 1/3) in the Minors," wrote Dykstra and Borek. "Remarkably durable, the third-round pick has made at least 22 starts four years running.

"His strikeout rate backed up considerably in 2025 (6.2 per nine) but he was two-and-a-half years younger than his Double-A competition. It will likely never be a high whiff profile but Morales could provide stability in an innings-eater role to an MLB club that believes in his pitchability."

Frankly, if Morales is the player the Mariners are most concerned about losing, they're in an enviable spot. Durability is key, of course, but teams seem to be looking for stuff above all else, and Morales' arm talent hasn't produced the strikeouts you'd want from a prospect with as much experience as he has.

Still, at age 23, Morales could be an interesting project for some team, because if he adds velocity, his pitchability might elevate him to major league starter status someday. That day would have to come soon, though, for the team selecting him on Wednesday.

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