Mariners' Potential 1st Base Target Gets Same Contract Projection As Josh Naylor

Is there any way Naylor leaves and this guy replaces him?

Oct 17, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) walks on the field before game five of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners will be looking to retain first baseman Josh Naylor in free agency, but what if that plan falls through?

Naylor became the most well-rounded version of himself in Seattle, leading the way in terms of batting average between the regular season and postseason after his arrival and stealing 21 bases in 66 games. But other teams also got to watch him put on a show in his new uniform.

Do the Mariners need to think about any potential backup plans on the first-base market in free agency? One insider recently set up an interesting hypothetical.

Mariners suggested as fit for Kazuma Okamoto

Mar 15, 2025; Bunkyo, Tokyo, Japan; Yomiuri Giants first baseman Kazuma Okamoto (25) fields a ground ball against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at Tokyo Dome. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

On Monday, Jim Bowden of The Athletic named the Mariners as potential suitors for Kazuma Okamoto, a 29-year-old Japanese corner infielder who will soon be posted by the Yomiuri Giants. And in an interesting twist of irony, Bowden also projected Okamoto for the exact same four-year, $90 million contract he gave Naylor.

"Okamoto has played both infield corners, but most MLB evaluators believe that first base is his best position. He’s a big power bat who has led the league in homers three times and hit a career-high 41 in 2023," wrote Bowden.

"He has terrific hand-eye coordination and solid contact skills to go along with the power. ... Best team fits: Mariners, (New York) Mets, (Boston) Red Sox, (Arizona) Diamondbacks, (Cleveland) Guardians. Contract prediction: 4 years, $90 million."

Okamoto's best case might be a very similar offensive profile to Naylor's, but with more pop from the right side. He put up a sparkling 1.014 OPS in 69 games in Japan's NPB this season, though a non-throwing elbow injury kept him sidelined for three months.

It appears unlikely that the Mariners would have room in the budget to sign Naylor to play first and Okamoto to play third, so perhaps the most likely scenario in which the latter comes to Seattle is that another team blows the Mariners' expectations out of the water in their offer to the former.

And there's absolutely a scenario in which Okamoto outperforms Naylor over the next four years or so. It's just hard to imagine Mariners fans would be excited to lose the player they fell in love with for a complete unknown.

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