Opinion: Stephen Strasburg Won't Make the Hall of Fame, But He Was Still Amazing
Stephen Strasburg will almost assuredly not get inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame come 2028, or any of the 10 years after that.
With his injuries, short career, lack of count stats and disappointing downfall, it would be hard for any writer to justify putting the Washington Nationals' ace on their official ballot.
But it sort of feels like he belongs in Cooperstown anyways.
Reports surfaced last week that Strasburg plans to retire in September. Strasburg is in the fourth year of a seven-year, $245 million contract with the Nationals, but he has appeared in just eight games over the last four seasons due to a handful of nagging injuries.
It really is a tragic end to an otherwise storied career, with severe nerve damage costing Strasburg virtually his entire 30s.
After all, he was one of the most dominant pitchers of the 2010s, one who surely met the expectations of being the unchallenged top prospect in baseball.
It all started with Strasburg's instantly iconic debut on June 8, 2010, when he struck out 14 batters to prove he belonged in the big leagues. Strasburg tore his UCL later that summer, which cost him most of his sophomore season as well, but he still had a 2.54 ERA and 0.978 WHIP with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings just 17 starts into his MLB career.
Strasburg returned and immediately became the All-Star he was projected to be, spending the next eight years as one of the most feared pitchers in the National League.
By the end of his age 30 season, Strasburg was 112-58 with a 3.17 ERA, 1.086 WHIP and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, never letting his ERA creep past 3.75 in any single year. His ERA to that point was lower than Roy Halladay's, Tom Glavine's and Max Scherzer's, while his career fWAR was higher than all three – plus Bob Gibson.
Strasburg led the Nationals to a championship in 2019, winning World Series MVP after going 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA throughout the postseason run.
In doing so, Strasburg became the first No. 1 overall pick to win World Series MVP in MLB history.
Strasburg's resume was impressive through 10 seasons, and even though he had only made three All-Star Games, the righty surely had other knockout campaigns that justified invitations.
In 2013, Strasburg may have been 5-6 heading into the All-Star break, but he had a 2.45 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a .209 batting average against and a .591 OPS against through 17 starts. Strasburg was 7-6 through 19 starts when the 2014 All-Star break rolled around, boasting a 3.47 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a .259 batting average against and a .690 OPS against.
Once he had established himself as a regular All-Star, Strasburg was snubbed again in 2018, when he was 6-6 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a .229 batting average against and .680 OPS against before the break. Perhaps the most egregious All-Star snub came in 2019, when Strasburg led the NL in wins and innings pitched, then finished fifth in Cy Young voting and 15th in MVP voting, all without making the Midsummer Classic.
Strasburg, even without getting into the elseworld scenario of what could have happened if he hadn't gotten injured, should still have seven All-Star nods under his belt instead of three.
Instead, he was regularly overshadowed by the likes of Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, all of whom are likely first-ballot Hall of Famers.
And unlike with those other all-time hurlers, it just wasn't meant to be for Strasburg.
Over the course of his career, Strasburg racked up a 32.3 WAR. The average Hall of Fame starting pitcher has a career WAR of 73.0.
Johan Santana, despite posting a 51.7 WAR before falling off in his 30s, didn't make it past his first year on the ballot in 2018. If that's the fate a two-time Cy Young met, it's hard to imagine Strasburg fares much better.
Strasburg has a JAWS of 30.4, compared to the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher's 61.4. He never won a Cy Young or Gold Glove, he didn't garner nearly as many All-Star appearances as he should have and his lone Silver Slugger hardly does much to help his case for Cooperstown.
Maybe it's time for voters to start weighing modern usage rates when filling out their ballots. We are unlikely to see another 300-game winner, for instance, and most managers don't let their pitchers throw complete game after complete game the way they did as recently as 15 years ago.
On a rate basis, the numbers show how great really Strasburg was. His 3.24 ERA, 1.096 WHIP and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings are all elite. Even his 4.4 WAR per 162 games is just a hair below the 4.5 of an average Hall of Fame starting pitcher.
By most standards, though, it's clear Strasburg simply didn't accomplish enough to warrant a plaque in the hallowed gallery in Upstate New York, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be held up as the historically dominant righty he was.
Strasburg was the best pitching prospect of his generation and he largely lived up to the hype. He helped turned a perennial losing franchise – even back to their days as the Montreal Expos – into a year-in, year-out contender. He made batters whiff with ease and he was arguably one of the faces of baseball for a full decade.
Even if he never gets his time to shine at an induction ceremony in Cooperstown, Stephen Strasburg is still worth remembering and praising for years to come.
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