Tarik Skubal Prediction Would Be MLB's Worst-Case Scenario

Where will Tarik Skubal land this winter in free agency?

Oct 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws during the third inning of game one of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tarik Skubal is the biggest star heading to free agency this winter and his ultimate decision will send shockwaves through Major League Baseball.

Entering the offseason, the most lucrative contract ever landed by a starting pitcher in big league history by total value was the 12-year, $325 million deal landed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto from the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2024 season. The second-largest deal by a starter in big league history was to Gerrit Cole when he landed his nine-year, $324 million pact. Skubal is 29 years old and there's a real chance that he breaks the record this winter, despite the fact that there very likely will be a lockout. The best landing spot for Skubal arguably would be a team like the New York Mets or the San Diego Padres. In either scenario, he would take a team that needs more pitching and immediately give them a significantly better rotation. The worst landing spot would be back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers.

Two of the biggest talking points around the league right now with a labor battle coming is parity and the disparity in the highest- and lowest-spending teams' payrolls. Skubal going back to Los Angeles would just fuel this noise more.

While breaking down the latest rumors around the league, Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley shared a prediction that Los Angeles will be the team that ultimately signs him.

"Swept out of the NLCS and denied their chance at a historic World Series three-peat, the Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty to ponder in an offseason that arrived earlier than they wanted," Buckley wrote. "Their core isn't getting younger or less expensive, and they may have worries of how they can roster such a club under whatever the new CBA implements. ... Prediction: Skubal re-signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers."

Tarik Skubal Staying In LA Would Be Bad News

Oct 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Dodgers are the Dodgers. While the Milwaukee Brewers knocked them out of the playoffs, this is still the team that has spent at unheard-of levels, got creative with deferred money and has been hoarding every big-name star going to the open market for years at this point.

Think of Kyle Tucker, for example. He got a ridiculous four-year, $240 million deal from Los Angeles last year after the Dodgers had won two straight World Series titles. Moves like that have frustrated fans around the league everywhere, outside of Los Angeles.

If the Dodgers were to turn around now and somehow sign Skubal, despite the unclear financial landscape of the league, it's just going to frustrate fans even further. It's not shocking to see predictions like these. Again, the Dodgers are the Dodgers. At this point, the expectation should be that they are going to sign everyone because that's what they did over the last few years. Hopefully, this one doesn't come true, though.