The Long-Awaited Tarik Skubal Sweepstakes Is Here and Could Get Pricey

The 2026 season is over for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles entered the 2026 season hoping for a historic third-straight World Series title, but those dreams were crushed by the National League Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. On paper, the Dodgers have the most star-studded roster in the league and Milwaukee looks more like the little engine that could. And it certainly did. The Brewers swept the Dodgers and now they have a longer-than-expected offseason ahead. Plus, the Dodgers employ the player who will be the biggest question mark in baseball in free agency: Tarik Skubal.

The Skubal sweepstakes is here and over the next few months, the two-time Cy Young Award winner will dominate free agency chatter because there is a real chance that he becomes the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history.

Over the last few years, there has tended to be at least one mega star heading to the open market. We've seen Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker all land massive deals over the last few years, for example. This winter, all eyes will be on Skubal. After Los Angeles was knocked out on Thursday, Skubal was asked about free agency, but he wasn't ready to talk about it, as shared by Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

"I'm not going to comment on my future really at all. Today sucks, you know, and that's kind of where my head's at," Skubal said.

Breaking Down Tarik Skubal's Market

Oct 11, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While Skubal wasn't ready to discuss the market yet, the baseball world will certainly be. Skubal is about to cash in this winter and it will be among the biggest stories of the year, outside of the ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiations and the upcoming winner of the World Series. Skubal's market could be that big. Right now, Spotrac has his market value projected to be just over $276 million across seven years. That would be an annual value of over $39 million per year. Right now, the record for the largest deal given to a pitcher by total value was Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million over 12 years from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies has the highest annual value of starters right now at $42 million (three-year, $126 million).

Back in September, ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote in a column that if a salary cap isn't added this winter, Skubal has a shot at doubling the $245 million deal Stephen Strasburg got from the Washington Nationals. That would be a truly absurd contract, especially because of the fact that Skubal will be 30 years old in just a few weeks. Plus, let's not forget that he had elbow surgery this season. He was great on the hill afterward, but you've always got to think about elbows when it comes to pitchers, especially if they have past question marks there.

When free agency opens up, Skubal is going to get paid very well. But how much? And by who? Also will the potential lockout speed the process up?

This winter, Skubal is the straw that will stir the drink in free agency. His market is going to be so large that it will likely impact other hurlers — and potentially the top free agents in general. We saw similar situations with other top free agents, like Soto. His market pretty much hung up free agency as he decided his next move. Skubal's sweepstakes has the potential to do the same. When all is said and done, Skubal is going to land some mega, nine-figure deal. There's a real chance he could break Yamamoto's record for the largest pitcher contract ever. With the Dodgers' season now over, the sweepstakes officially begins.

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