The Biggest Surprises of the 2026 MLB Season So Far

The 2026 season is now in its third month. We are now starting to see who the clear contenders are and who is likely out of the picture with the trade deadline approaching. Every season is full of surprises too.

Perhaps some teams that were not expected to contend have found their way into the postseason picture, while others have disappointed. But it will be interesting to see if certain things last as the season plays out.

Here are two of the biggest surprises so far this season and why they were so unexpected at the beginning of the year.

The strength of the NL Central

May 28, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Just three days into the month of June, the National League Central is by far the toughest division in baseball. All five teams are still above the .500 mark and firmly in the playoff race. Even the St. Louis Cardinals, who tore down their roster last offseason, are right in the thick of things, which is quite a surprise.

Three teams made the postseason from the NL Central last year, but from 2022-24, only one team made it each year. The division is clearly getting better and could be a force for years to come. The Pittsburgh Pirates are also finally coming into their own with a strong pitching staff led by Paul Skenes.

The weakness of the American League

May 31, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) smiles back at his teammates after his bloop hit fell between two Athletics fielders during the third inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

On the contrary, the American League has been nothing short of a travesty. Only five teams in the entire league are above the .500 mark.

The Texas Rangers currently hold the third wild card spot, but are a game below .500, which makes for an interesting dynamic. Other teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros have also been disappointments, to say the least. Clearly, the AL is not on par with the NL at this point, and it's going to take a while for things to shift.

One division in the NL is stronger than the entire AL, but the struggles of some of these teams that were expected to contend have led to the AL not being as strong as it could have been entering the season.

It will be interesting to see what happens leading up to the trade deadline, but the weakness of the AL could lead to there being a lot of sellers when the time comes on August 3.

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