Toronto Blue Jays Projected to Make Massive Improvement in 2025

The Blue Jays finished last in the American League East last year at 74-88, but the Baseball Prospectus forecast for 2025 is much rosier.

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) returns to the dugout before playing the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. | Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

After finishing last in the American League East in 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays are projected to make a massive improvement in 2025.

The PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus were released on Monday and they have the Jays at 84.5 wins this year. This comes on the heels of them finishing 74-88 last season.

Those 84.5 wins would have the Blue Jays in third place and with a 12.5 percent chance to win the division and a 36.5 percent chance to earn a wild card spot.

At nearly 50 percent total playoff odds, the Jays are a in better spot than several others see them. They last made the playoffs in 2023 but haven't won a playoff game since 2016.

baseball prospectus turned on their 2025 data today pic.twitter.com/lgpsTCxf7u

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) February 3, 2025

The positive projections must be banking on a healthy year from Bo Bichette, who played just 82 disappointing games last year. He hit only .223 with four homers. Furthermore, the Jays have gone out and added impact in the bullpen, signing free agents Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia. They brought in Max Scherzer via free agency, which will force Yariel Rodriguez to the bullpen, further strengthening that unit.

Toronto also upgraded defensively by bringing in Gold Glove winner Andres Gimenez in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians. They also signed Anthony Santander to a five-year deal worth $92.5 million. He's been one of the most productive hitters in baseball over the last several years and is coming off a season in which he hit 44 home runs for the Baltimore Orioles.

He'll pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bichette in the middle of the order.

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