Two Teams That Will Come Back to Earth After Starting 2026 Hot

With the first month of the 2026 season almost halfway done, now is a good time to evaluate all 30 MLB teams. Some have started hot while others have cooled off. Some teams may be playing above their potential, while others play below it.

Each season is different, but there are always some surprises and disappointments every year. In a few months, the postseason picture will be set, but that time is not now.

Still, it's a good time to look at some teams that might be overachieving a little bit and could ultimately come back down to earth. Here are two teams with potential to regress.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Apr 7, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes (30) throws against the San Diego Padres during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Pirates finally spent some money and made some moves this offseason to improve their roster. Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, Gregory Soto, Jose Urquidy and Ryan O'Hearn were all solid additions that can supplement a roster that already has Paul Skenes as its best starting pitcher.

In addition, Konnor Griffin has burst onto the scene and earned himself a contract extension. But in no way are the Pirates on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They could end up improving a bit after a 71-91 finish in 2025, but this is not a World Series contender.

The Pirates haven't finished over .500 since 2018, and at a certain point, it would not be a surprise to see them ultimately fold and end up back in the basement in the National League Central, which is only getting better as time goes on.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are another case of a team that is playing above their potential. New manager Derek Shelton has helped them get off to a much better start.

But this is still a team that tore down its roster at last year's trade deadline and is dealing with a division that contains the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals, two of which were postseason teams in 2025.

The starting rotation is a bit of a concern. Pablo Lopez is out for the season with Tommy John surgery, and Joe Ryan has just two years of club control left. With Lopez out, the rotation is missing a major piece and could begin to regress soon.

Plus, it may only be a matter of time before Detroit heats up and takes the the top spot in the division, so the Twins are a team that could fall out of the race before long.

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