UFC 316 picks: Staff predictions for Merab vs. Sean & every main card fight

UFC 316 is here, and history will be made in the men's and women's bantamweight divisions.

The New Jersey event is one of high stakes, as both title fights are do-or-die for all those involved. The card also features the debut of former PFL-Bellator champion Patchy Mix, taking on Mario Bautista in another bantamweight contest on the main card.

There's plenty to look forward to, and MMA Knockout's own writing team, Mat Riddle (@notMattRiddle), Drew Beaupré (@mmameditations), and Zain Bando (@zainbando99), are keen to provide their insights into the UFC 316 main card.

The UFC 316 fighter with the most to prove on Saturday night

Merab Dvalishvili (left) faces off with Sean O'Malley (right) at the UFC 316 ceremonial weigh ins — Ed Mulholland-Zuffa LLC

UFC 316 main card staff predictions

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction

Mat: As far as I'm concerned, this is a 50-50 fight, since O'Malley only needs to be perfect for five seconds to win any fight. That said, I have more faith in Dvalishvili to get the job done; the fitter fighter usually wins. (Pick: Dvalishvili)

Drew: You can’t ever discount the chances of O’Malley connecting with something big to stop Dvalishvili, but it’s tough to be confident in any potential adjustments he’s made when we haven’t seen “Suga” since that first fight.

I’d have preferred to see him compete at least once, trying to regain his title, so I have to pick Dvalishvili to put on a similar performance to the one we saw at UFC 306. ( Pick: Dvalishvili)

Zain: Sean O’Malley seems to be in a better headspace entering the rematch with Merab Dvalishvili. I think the lifestyle changes he has made will pay dividends. If he catches him with a counter coming in and can stuff Dvalishvili’s shots, anything is possible. (Pick: O'Malley)

Verdict: Dvalishvili 2-1 O'Malley

UFC 316 pre-fight press conference free live stream for Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison prediction

Mat: To be frank, I think Harrison takes down Pena early and mauls her for the finish, I don't see an option for Pena that isn't some fluke victory, but this is unpredictable women's MMA after all... (Pick: Harrison)

Drew: Harrison should certainly be favored in this matchup, but the current betting odds are staggering for any UFC title fight, let alone one where Peña is the defending champion. That being said, it’s hard to picture a clear avenue to victory for “The Venezuelan Vixen” in this matchup. (Pick: Harrison)

Zain: Kayla Harrison’s moment has arrived. She has said all the right things, and the odds reflect her confidence. It’s not a matter of if she beats Julianna Peña, it’s a matter of how and when. I would like to think she gets an early finish. (Pick: Harrison)

Pick: Unanimous for Harrison

Kelvin Gastelum fighting Chris Curti — Rich Storry-Imagn Images

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer prediction

Mat: I have nothing against Gastelum, but I think he's undersized at middleweight, and already in the twilight years of his career, even though he's in his early thirties.

I choose Pyfer to hand him his first KO loss, not because he's any better, just because he'll tower over Gastelum and has hopefully improved since losing to Jack Hermansson. (Pick: Pyfer)

Drew: Originally scheduled to take place in Mexico City in March, this fight reminds me of Gastelum’s 2017 matchup with Chris Weidman, where the former welterweight had some notable success but was ultimately outmatched physically.

I’m still not sold on Pyfer and wouldn’t mind seeing him get humbled after his comments about Mexico, but I expect that the size difference will be too much for Gastelum to overcome. (Pick: Pyfer)

Zain: This is my least favorite fight on the card. It’s Joe Pyfer’s to lose, as Kelvin Gastelum has the experience edge. Pyfer’s confidence level could use an even greater spark, so a dominant win here could suffice. (Pick: Pyfer)

Verdict: Unanimous for Pyfer

UFC 316 Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 live weigh-in show stream & results

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix prediction

Mat: Unlike Patricio Pitbull at UFC 314, I think Mix is an external champion who should be able to hang at the top in the UFC. Bautista isn't necessarily an easy fight, but I'm going with Mix to show the UFC bantamweight that he belongs. (Pick: Mix)

Drew: The main event is understandably dominating the spotlight ahead of UFC 316, but this might be the most intriguing fight on the entire card. I hate that Bautista’s lackluster win over José Aldo seemingly turned a lot of fans against him and undermined the incredible run he’s been on, and unfortunately, a tough matchup with Mix might send him back to the drawing board. (Pick: Mix)

Zain: This fight has the potential for FOTN. Patchy Mix should have been in the UFC a bit ago, and I expect he and Mario Bautista to come out swinging. But Mix, a former Bellator champ, will catch him first. (Pick: Mix)

Verdict: Unanimous for Mix

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland prediction

Mat: I'm happy to see Luque on a PPV main card. 'The Silent Assassin' has long been one of my favorite UFC fighters. That said, I'm unsure he should be fighting at all after suffering a brain bleed not too long ago, and if he doesn't turn out a vintage performance, I see Holland piecing him up.

I'll go with heart over brain here and pick Luque. (Pick: Luque)

Drew: It was great to see Luque get back into the win column with a quick finish in his last outing, but I don’t like this matchup for him at all. Holland reminded fans (and perhaps himself) that he’s at his best at 170 lbs. with his performance against Gunnar Nelson, and on Saturday night he has the chance to score back-to-back wins for the first time since 2023. (Pick: Holland)

Zain: Both men are going in opposite directions in their careers. While Kevin Holland is a fun fighter, he’s not who he once was. Vicente Luque should have little trouble with him unless he leaves something open. (Pick: Luque)

Verdict: Luque 2-1 Holland

UFC 316 Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley full preliminary card picks & predictions

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