Can top 5-star recruit Aaliyah Chavez reach 5,000 career points?

Nation’s No. 1 recruit chasing historic mark, but can she get there?

Monterey's Aaliyah Chavez - the nation's No. 1 girls 2025 recruit - has scored 1,000 points in each season of her career and is currently 569 shy of 5,000. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

While she’s still chasing a state championship at Lubbock’s Monterey High School, 5-star senior guard and No. 1 girls 2025 high school recruit Aaliyah Chavez has already reached about every other personal goal she could have possibly set for herself entering her high school career.

She scored 1,000 varsity points. Then she did it again her sophomore year, and junior year, and already again this season. She's won about every major award an amateur girls basketball player can win and has been named to the top of every list.

But that doesn’t stop players of her caliber from constantly setting new goals. And while the championship is where her sights are ultimately set as she winds down the final weeks of her high school career and decides which college she will attend; there’s another personal mark lurking in the 5-foot-11 guard's background: 5,000 career points.

While only eight players are said to have ever scored at least 5,000 career points in girls high school basketball history, the National Federation of High School Associations (NFHS) only recognizes two on it’s all-time career scoring leaders – No. 1 Adrien McGowen (Texas) who had 5,424 from 2003-2006 for Goodrich High School, and No. 2 Victoria Vivians (Miss.) who had 5,172 from 2011-2014 for Forest Scott Central.

However you see it, Chavez is fast approaching roads that haven’t been traveled much. But does she have a realistic shot to make it into the 5,000-point club?

Realistically speaking - and tempering expectations on a young woman who only celebrated her 18th birthday on Nov. 20 – the statistics show she’ll come up a bit shy. Then again, Chavez has carved a career path by beating the odds at Monterey.

She’s currently at 4,431 points with six regular season games left before the start of Texas Regional Playoffs. Now here comes the tricky part.

A trip to the finals would give her the maximum of 11 games to score the final 569 points needed to reach 5,000. That means Chavez would need to lead the Lady Plainsmen (26-4) to the finals while also averaging about 52 points the rest of the way.

She’s certainly capable of dropping 50 on any night. She has eight-career 50-point games in her high school career – including a career-high 57 during her junior campaign in 2023-2024. She scored 50 as recently as Jan. 7.

But that’s also the problem. She has eight 50-point games in her career. She’d practically need 11 more, consecutively, or have some big outliers, the rest of the way to make it happen. She’s talented enough to put together a run as unheard of as that, but it’s an unfair ask.

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Of course, it’s insurmountable without a deep playoff run. Last season, the Lady Plainsmen reached the Texas Regional Quarterfinals. If they were to repeat that this season, Chavez would have nine games to hit 5,000 points and would need to average 63.2 points.

This conversation seemed less likely to happen even a few weeks ago. But Chavez has continued to pile on big performances in the second half – sending her flying up record books in the process and drawing her within earshot of the mark.

She surpassed 4,000 career points with a 48-point performance against Lubbock on Dec. 10, and then followed with 369 points over the 10 following games.

Monterey's Aaliyah Chavez shoots the ball against Amarillo High in the Region I-5A quarterfinal basketball playoff game, Monday, Feb. 19, 2024, at the Hutcherson Center in Plainview. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

As for her averages – and perhaps a more accurate assessment of where she could wind up – Chavez’s incredible consistency in the past two seasons gives us a much better understanding.

As a junior, she averaged 37.8 points, 10.1 rebounds (7.7 defensive, 2.4 offensive), 4.4 assists, 3.5 steals and 0.9 blocks over 35 games. In 30 games as a senior she’s averaging 36.2 points, 9.3 rebounds (7.1 defensive, 2.3 offensive), 4.2 assists, 3.6 steals and 1 block.

That’s about as steady as it gets.

If she were to maintain that consistency into the regional final, she’d add roughly another 400 points to her total, leaving her just shy of 5,000, but undoubtedly amongst the greatest prep scorers of all-time.

That’s a pretty good career.

Expected to sign an NIL deal worth at least $1 million, Chavez announced she is considering final offers from hometown Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, UCLA, LSU and South Carolina.