2027 NBA Draft: 12 Returners Who Have Hit Significant Statistical Thresholds

Let's take a look at the 12 returners who have previously met significant statistical thresholds.

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) dunks against the St. John's Red Storm in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

NIL has changed the landscape of college basketball, with an unprecedented number of projected first round picks deciding to return to school. Names included Motiejus Krivas, Ivan Kharchenkov, Patrick Ngongba II, Flory Bidunga, Tyler Tanner, and Thomas Haugh. Not only were these players projected to be drafted, but many had met significant statistical thresholds that could be used to predict a strong likelihood to stick in the NBA. Let's take a look at all 12 players who have previously met significant statistical thresholds and are still in college:

Ivan Kharchenkov, Arizona

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Ivan Kharchenkov (8) controls the ball against Utah State Aggies guard Elijah Perryman (1) in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The only returner in college basketball who has met the Productive Young Athlete query, Kharchenkov was in elite company this past season as one of eleven players to meet the query. The other ten players: Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, Allen Graves, Darryn Peterson, Kingston Flemings, Brayden Burries, AJ Dybantsa, Ebuka Okorie, Hannes Steinbach, and Darius Acuff Jr.

Overall, 50% of players who meet the query become Starters or multi-time All-Stars, while another 28% become backups -- meaning only 22% of players who meet the query don't play five-plus years in the NBA at all.

The 6-foot-7, 200-pound freshman averaged 10.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.7 stocks per game while shooting 66.7% at the rim (129 attempts), 43.1% on non-rim twos (72 attempts), 31.7% from three (104 attempts | 5.3 three point attempts per 100 possessions), and 72.3% from the free throw line (101 attempts).

Read More: The Productive Young Athlete Query

Flory Bidunga, Louisville

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; California Baptist Lancers guard Martel Williams (33) shoots against Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

One of six players who have met the Productive Sophomore Query and are still in college, the 6-foot-9, 230-pound, 7-foot-3 wingspan big is transferring to Louisville after spending two seasons in Lawrence. He averaged 13.3 points, nine rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, and 2.6 blocks per game this past season while shooting 75%at the rim (216 attempts) and 38.9% on non-rim twos (90 attempts). Bidunga has shot 66% from the free throw line the past two seasons, however, and had only two three point attempts last year.

Additionally, Bidunga recorded an 11.2 offensive rebound percentage, a 1.4 steal percentage, and a block percentage of nine this past season. His block percentage was27th-highest in college basketball while he also had the second most dunks in college basketball with 82.

For context, 44.8% of players who have met the Productive Sophomore Query became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars, while another 27.6% become backups -- meaning around 72% of players who meet the query stick in the NBA overall.

Read More: The Productive Sophomore Query

Alex Condon, Florida

Mar 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) dribbles the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Condon met the Productive Sophomore Query in the 2024-25 college basketball season, and his impact was impressive this past season as well. He averaged 15.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 66% at the rim (203 attempts) and 54.8% on non-rim twos (84 attempts). However, Condon is only a career 26.2% three point shooter (149 attempts) and 63.8% free throw shooter.

Additionally, Condon was impactful as an offensive rebounder, passer, and defensive playmaker at times this past season as well -- recording an 8.2 offensive rebound percentage, 20 assist percentage, and a 5.8 stock percentage.

Thomas Haugh, Florida

Florida forward Thomas Haugh (10) drives during the NCAA March Madness opening round at Benchmark international Arena in Tampa, FL on Friday, March 20, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Haugh was a projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, but met the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query during Florida's championship run in 2024-25. The 6-foot-9, 210-pound wing had a true breakout this past season -- averaging 17.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and one block per game while shooting 62.1% at the rim (182 attempts), 32.5% on non-rim twos (40 attempts), 32.6% from three (178 attempts | 8.7 three point attempts per 100 possessions), and 77.4% from the free throw line (199 attempts).

Patrick Ngongba II, Duke

Oct 3, 2025; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) shoots a free throw during the Countdown to Craziness at the Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

A player who would have likely been selected in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft alongside Thomas Haugh, Ngongba II decided to return to school for his junior season--a decision that could lead to another increase in his draft stock in 2027.

The 6-foot-11, 250-pound sophomore averaged 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, two assists, 0.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 71.2% at the rim (139 attempts), 38.9% on non-rim twos (only 18 attempts), 25.8% from three (only 31 attempts), and 66.4% from the line (131 attempts) -- impactful enough to meet the Productive Sophmore Query. Showing some level of free throw touch or ability to space the floor could improve his draft stock significantly in 2027.

Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt

Mar 21, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) dunks during the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The 6-foot, 170-pound guard had the 16th-highest Box Plus-Minus for a sophomore since it began being tracked onBarttorvik.com in 2008 -- higher than Collin Murray-Boyles, Marcus Smart, Tyrese Haliburton, and Franz Wagner. This past season, while also meeting the Productive Sophomore Query, Tanner averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 0.3 blocks per game while shooting64.4% at the rim (194 attempts), 38.1% on non-rim twos (113 attempts), 36.8% from beyond the arc (7.7 three point attempts per 100 possessions | 163 attempts), and 85.3% from the free throw line (218 attempts).

He recorded an incredible 4.1 steal percentage, the 27th-highest in all of Division I this past season (of players who played at least 40% of their team's minutes). Additionally, Tanner created offense for both himself and teammates at an impressive rate this past season. He was unassisted on 63.6% of his made field goals while assisting an estimated 28.9% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor.

While only four guards listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck in the NBA since 2013 and the overall stick rate for those drafted since then is 21.5% (4-of-19), perhaps Tanner can be the exception.

Read More: A Study on Undersized Guards

Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

Feb 25, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) scores during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-11, 220-pound big met the Productive Sophomore Query during the 2024-25 college basketball season, and he continued to improve his junior season this past year as well. He averaged 13.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.2 blocks this past season while shooting 78.1% at the rim (137 attempts) and 40.5% on non-rim twos (37 attempts). Additionally, Winter is a career 33.6% three point shooter (229 attempts) and has made 74.7% of his attempts at line over this three seasons as a Badger (194 attempts).

Matt Able, UNC

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) brings the ball up the court in the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Matt Able was one of five players still in college who has met the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) query. 34% of players who have met the criteria became NBA Starters or multi-time All-Stars, while another 34% became NBA backups -- meaning 68% of players who have played five-plus years in the NBA.

The 6-foot-6, 205-pound guard recently committed to UNC for his sophomore season, where he'll be a player to monitor for the 2027 NBA Draft. This past season, when coming off the bench for the Wolfpack, he averaged 8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.9 assists, and 1.5 stocks per game while shooting 54.5% at the rim (66 attempts), 41.3% on non-rim twos (46 attempts), 35.5% from three (138 attempts | 7.5 three point attempts per 100 possessions), and 79.6% from the free throw line (54 attempts). Additionally, Able recorded a 3.3 steal percentage and a 1.9 block percentage.

Read More: The Efficient Tall Freshman Query

Isaac Celiscar, Baylor

March 20, 2025; Denver, CO, USA; Yale Bulldogs forward Isaac Celiscar (8) boxes out Texas A&M Aggies guard Zhuric Phelps (1) during the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-6, 210-pound forward met the Efficient Tall Freshman query in the 2024-25 college basketball season. The Baylor transfer spent his first two seasons at Yale, where he earned Second Team All-Ivy this past season.

He averaged 13.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and one stock per game while shooting 66.4% at the rim (128 attempts), 49.1% on non-rim twos (53 attempts), 40.7% from beyond the arc (59 attempts), and 79.8% from the free throw line (119 attempts) this past season. Additionally, Celiscar recorded a 7.1 offensive rebound percentage and a 18.2 assist percentage this past season.

Jacob Cofie, USC

Feb 24, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans forward Jacob Cofie (6) blocks a shot by UCLA Bruins forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) during the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-10 forward met the Efficient Tall Freshman query as a freshman at Virginia in the 2024-25 season, and will now be playing his second straight season at USC. He improved his sophomore season as well, averaging 9.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game while shooting 61% at the rim (118 attempts), 46.2% on non-rim twos (52 attempts), 31.8% from beyond the arc (66 attempts), but only 60.5% from the free throw line (81 attempts). Additionally, Cofie recorded a 7.8 offensive rebound percentage and a 6.3 block percentage this past season.

Braden Frager, Nebraska

Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Braden Frager (5) shoots the ball against Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Frager is a 6-foot-7 guard who averaged 11.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, one assist, and 0.8 stocks per game while coming off the bench for the Cornhuskers this past season. Additionally, Frager shot an impressive 77.1% at the rim, 35.2% from three (162 attempts | 12.5 three point attempts per 100 possessions), and 80.5% from the free throw line (82 attempts).

Frager will return to Nebraska for his sophomore season, where he's someone to monitor as a potential 2027 NBA Draft prospect after meeting the Efficient Tall Freshman query this past season.

Karter Knox, Louisville

Arkansas' Karter Knox finishes an alley-oop against Texas Tech during a non-conference men's basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 13, 2025, in American Airlines Center in Dallas. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Knox met the Efficient Tall Freshman query in the 2024-25 college basketball season as an Arkansas Razorback, and will now be transferring to Louisville for his upcoming junior season. Unfortunately Knox suffered a torn left meniscus this past season as a sophomore at Arkansas, but was contributing prior to injury. Knox averaged 8.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.2 stocks per game while shooting 63.3% at the rim (49 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (21 attempts), 37.7% from three (69 attempts), and 72.7% from the free throw line (33 attempts) in 22 games this past season.