ESPN Model Projects Bengals To Get Blown Out By Buffalo, Win AFC North

The first projected result may cause a double take.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Dec 29, 2022 12:25 PM EST
Original:
Dec 29, 2022

In this story:

CINCINNATI — One major analytics model has the Bengals getting blown out of the water in Monday night's game against the Bills.

ESPN's Seth Walder posted his final simulations for the regular season, and the Football Power Index spit out a 37-9 win for Buffalo.

"The Steelers beat the Ravens, which keeps Pittsburgh alive,' Walder wrote. "That also would have hurt Baltimore's chances to win the AFC North ... except the Bengals also lose in blowout fashion to the Bills, meaning that division comes down to Week 18."

Despite that lopsided result, the model does have the Bengals beating Baltimore 31-25 in Week 18 to capture the AFC North and No. 3 seed.

"In recent weeks, it has felt inevitable that the red-hot Bengals would win this division over the stumbling Ravens," Walder wrote. "But after both teams lose in Week 17, it comes down to a Week 18 contest. And with a healthy Lamar Jackson back in the fray, this is no gimme for Cincinnati. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and the Cincinnati offense get it done, though, dropping 31 points on the Ravens in a one-score Week 18 contest, giving the Bengals home-field advantage for their postseason rematch a week later."

The win-loss results are the most likely based on overall team trends, but a 28-point blowout loss to Josh Allen's crew as one-point underdogs would be a sobering result for the Bengals.

Walder explained why he pulled this exact simulation in the piece.

"Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we determined the most likely seed combination in each conference. We then picked a single simulation that yielded that pure chalk playoff seeding to forecast scores for each game and simulate the postseason. There's a 9% chance the NFC seeds are in the exact order that's written below, and there's a 12% chance of the same occurring for the AFC. That might not sound like a lot, but it's a fairly high probability for an exact hit; both numbers are higher than when we did this exercise last season.

"So we're going to break down these final two weeks based on how ESPN's FPI sees it playing out in simulation No. 5,899, which yields the chalk playoff field. Who snuck into the playoffs? Who landed the No. 1 seeds? And who fell just short of the postseason? Let's take a look into the FPI's crystal ball."

Cincinnati and Buffalo meet on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The game airs on ESPN and is available on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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