Strength of Schedule Hints at Trouble for Packers

The Green Bay Packers benefitted from an easy schedule last season. The betting-model formula shows a potential pothole on the way to the playoffs.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur / Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There’s no sure-fire way to gauge an NFL team’s strength of schedule in May. What is undoubtedly true is ranking 2024 strength of schedule based on 2023 records is silly.

Take a look at the Atlanta Falcons, for instance. Atlanta in 2023 posted its third consecutive 7-10 finish and hasn’t been over .500 or reached the playoffs since 2017. This is a bad team – and has been a bad team.

Probably not anymore, though. With the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins, the Falcons are one of the strongest division favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Using the betting markets might be the best way to judge strength of schedule. Are the Falcons the seven-win team from last year? Or are they more likely to hit the over on 9.5 wins because they have a perennial 4,000-yard passer?

Sharp Football Analysis used those projected win totals in putting together its strength-of-schedule rankings.

Green Bay’s schedule isn’t overly difficult, ranking 19th (with the aforementioned Falcons ranking No. 1 with the easiest schedule).

However, here’s where there is some potential trouble: Green Bay wound up playing the fifth-easiest schedule last year. Compared to a projected 19th for 2024, the Packers have the fourth-largest easy-to-difficult swing.

The betting-model-driven method of gauging strength of schedule has a history of success. As noted by the author, Warren Sharp:

- Of the 15 teams projected to have the easiest schedules in 2023, 11 finished with winning records. With a late-season hot streak, Green Bay was one of those with a 9-8 record. Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest schedules, only five had a winning record.

- Of the 15 teams that actually played the easiest schedules in 2023, 10 made the playoffs. One of those, of course, was the Packers. Of the 17 teams that played the hardest schedules, four made the playoffs and only four beat their projected win total.

Are the Packers so good that it won’t matter?

The Packers should be better a team in 2024 than 2023 given the growth on the Jordan Love-led offense, the possible improvement on defense under new coordinator Jeff Hafley and the battle-toughness gained through a season of trials and tribulations.

“I think probably the No. 1 takeaway from last season was when things weren’t going great for us, the guys stayed resilient and they had something to prove,” coach Matt LaFleur said recently. “A lot of times when you get a lot of youth into your organization, the circumstances don’t necessarily matter. It’s about proving yourself day in and day out. The guys did a great job.

“This is why the football character is so important, because they did a great job staying together, staying connected, believing in one another and quite frankly pushing one another to continue to try to get out of the muck, so to speak.”

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— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) May 18, 2024

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