Saints Must Halt Browns in Old-Fashioned Week 16 Battle

The Saints performance against the run is the most surprisingly disappointing aspect of their game in 2022. Their slim postseason hopes depend on whether they can reverse that trend in Week 16 at Cleveland.

Author:
Bob Rose
Publish date:
Dec 21, 2022 2:23 PM EST

In this story:

New Orleans Saints

A 5-9 New Orleans Saints team heads north to face the 6-8 Cleveland Browns on Christmas Eve. The Saints can still win the NFC South, but need a win here to keep any realistic hopes alive.

New Orleans was expected to have one of the NFL's best defenses in 2022. They've had their moments, especially over the last month, but have also suffered crucial breakdowns in key situations.

The Saints rank 11th in total defense, giving up an average of 327.6 yards per game. However, they rank last in turnovers forced (10) and have struggled on third downs. Most concerning is the failures of a run defense that dominated opponents from 2018 through 2021.

They'll take on a physical Cleveland team that got QB Deshaun Watson back from suspension three weeks ago. The Browns average 362.6 total yards per game, ranking 8th in the league. While their passing attack has been erratic, they've had one of the NFL's most consistent ground games.

Inclement weather is expected for the game, likely increasing the importance of the running game.

The Saints performance against the run is the most surprisingly disappointing aspect of their game in 2022. Can they reverse that trend to keep slim postseason hopes alive?

Saints Run Defense

- 22.5 points per game (17th)

- 132.6 rushing yards/game (23rd)

- 4.6 per rush (21st)

- 13 rushing touchdowns (15th)

- 63 tackles for loss

- 41.4% 3rd Down Percentage (22nd)

New Orleans Saints linebackers Kaden Elliss (55) and Demario Davis (56) tackle Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson (84). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans has held six opponents under 100 yards on the ground. However, seven teams have plowed over them for at least 145 yards rushing, including an astounding three games of at least 200 on the ground. Three runners have managed 100-yard outings against New Orleans, with seven others rushing for at least 70 yards.

Saints struggles start with the defensive tackle spot, although they've played far better over the last month. For much of the year, the unit has been blown off the ball, allowing runners to get to the second level easily. David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, and Malcolm Roach have all shown flashes, but haven't caused consistent interior disruption.

Veteran Cam Jordan leads a deep crew of talented defensive ends and leads the team with 10 tackles for loss. Jordan, Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, and Tanoh Kpassagnon are all good run defenders. However, the inability of the tackles to get inside push lets blockers to seal them off from crashing down on the ball and allows runners to get yards inside of the ends.

New Orleans Saints linebacker Pete Werner (20) tackles Arizona Cardinals running back Keaontay Ingram (30). Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY

Linebackers Demario Davis, Pete Werner, and Kaden Elliss have been the strongest and most consistent parts of the defense. Davis leads the team with 89 tackles, including nine for loss. His elite instincts, physicality, and ferocious sideline-to-sideline pursuit make him one of the league's best all-around defenders.

Werner was having a magnificent year and leading the NFL in solo tackles before suffering an ankle injury in Week 9. The injury sidelined him for four games. He returned last week against Atlanta, but injured a hamstring that puts his status in doubt this week. Werner expertly sifts through traffic to the ball and has underrated athleticism in the open field.

Without Werner, fourth-year LB Elliss saw increased reps and took great advantage of the opportunity. A physical downhill player, Elliss has given a jolt to the entire unit. In the four games Werner missed, he totaled 40 tackles, including two outings of double-digit stops.

New Orleans defensive backs haven't swarmed to the ball like we've seen in years past. The entire unit has struggled with missed tackles and poor angles to the ball. This is especially true of veteran S Tyrann Mathieu, a disappointing offseason acquisition.

Another offseason pickup, S Marcus Maye, has been in and out of the lineup because of injuries. He's now dealing with a shoulder injury that's expected to keep him limited in practice this week.

Browns Rushing Attack

- 22.4 points per game (13th)

- 149 rushing yards/game (5th)

- 4.7 per rush (11th)

- 18 rushing touchdowns (4th)

- 37.5% 3rd Down Percentage (22nd)

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs against the Baltimore Ravens. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland has had one of the league's most productive ground games all season. They have eight outings of over 170 yards rushing and have been held under 100 by just three opponents.

Fifth-year RB Nick Chubb has been the star of the offense. Currently third in the league in rushing, Chubb has 1,252 yards and 12 scores while averaging five yards per carry. Chubb has terrific power and good open field burst, allowing him to be effective inside and outside. He has six 100-yard outings and four more of at least 70.

While Chubb has carried the load, the Browns have an outstanding pair of backs behind him.

Sixth-year back Kareem Hunt has seen a decrease in reps, but is a former 1,000-yard back capable of starting for most teams. He has 443 yards and three scores on the ground while adding 28 catches and 182 yards as a receiver. The Browns don't miss a beat when Hunt is in the backfield.

Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt (27) runs with against the Miami Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

With such a talented duo in front of him, there just haven't been any touches for fourth-year RB D'Ernest Johnson. When he's gotten chances, Johnson has shown a nice combination of speed, power, and balance.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who started 11 games during Watson's suspension. He's a rushing threat that the Browns have continued to use in some situations since Watson's return. Brissett has 241 rushing yards, third on the team, and two scores. Watson isn't known as a runner, but is still capable of making plays with his legs.

What to Expect

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) is stopped by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56). Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland has relied on the run all season. With frigid temperatures and multiple inches of snow expected on Saturday, that certainly won't change.

New Orleans gave up a season-high 231 yards rushing to the Falcons last week. Cleveland's physical offensive line will challenge the Saints front through all four quarters, especially along the interior.

Expect New Orleans to bring a safety in the box often, probably Maye. The strategy will give the Saints an extra defender against Cleveland blocking and create more one-on-one matchups along the line of scrimmage.

One of the key matchups will be Davis and the Saints linebackers versus Chubb, particularly in the open field. We will definitely see several bone-jarring collisions in an old-school showdown.

The winner of those matchups will almost certainly determine the victor in what's expected to be a physical battle in sloppy weather.